Dolphins vs. Broncos Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction

Nik Kowalski | Updated Nov 19, 2020

Broncos Training

If Drew Lock can't go, Brett Rypien will likely get the call to take Denver's snaps as the Broncos host the Dolphins on Sunday.

Miami
6-4
AT
November 22, 2020, 4:05 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
Denver
4-6
Pointspread -4 -115
Moneyline -225
Over / Under o +46

89%

Betting Action

11%

Pointspread +4 -105
Moneyline +187
Over / Under u +46

89%

Betting Action

11%

The 6-3 Miami Dolphins are on a remarkable run behind rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Not only have the Dolphins won five games in a row, but they have covered in all five too. Now travelling to Denver to take on the 3-6 Broncos, Miami’s a team Denver does not want to see.

Quarterback Drew Lock is questionable Sunday with bruised ribs, meaning Brett Rypien would likely be tasked with suiting up against the red-hot Dolphins’ defence. Miami opened at -1 on the NFL odds board and that line has moved to -3.5 with Lock’s status in question.

NFL Week 11 Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Miami’s been one of the NFL’s top plays when it comes to betting too. The Dolphins are 7-2 against the spread in the 2020–21 season, covering in three of their four road games. The head-to-head statistics don’t get any prettier for the home side either as the Fish have won nine of their last 13 against Denver and covered in eight of their last nine meetings.

The turnover battle should get some extra attention at Mile High Stadium Sunday. The Broncos have a league-worst 21 giveaways while Miami sits tied for fourth with 15 takeaways. It was Denver’s downfall in Week 10 as it committed five turnovers in a 25-point loss at Oakland.

Miami Dolphins

Miami’s won five of six games by at least a touchdown, yet rank 29th in yards per game – proving Brian Flores is doing a fantastic job collecting wins by any means.

With Tagovailoa failing to hit 200 yards again last week, undrafted rookie Salvon Ahmed picked up the workload with 21 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown. That’s been the Dolphins’ mantra this year as no offensive player has over 500 yards through 10 games.

And their defence is still getting the job done. They held Justin Herbert to under 200 passing yards in Week 10, and rank in the top five with 20.2 points against per game. Emmanuel Ogbah’s having a breakout season with eight a career-high eight sacks — fourth in the NFL.

Denver Broncos

Not many teams have been hit harder by injuries than the Broncos have this year. If Lock can’t go Sunday, it’ll be the third game he’s missed in 2020 with an injury. Tight end Noah Fant also missed practice Wednesday, while receiver Jerry Jeudy and cornerback A.J. Bouye were both limited participants.

Taking care of the ball is priority number one for Denver, but a conservative offence might make matters even worse. The Broncos rank in the bottom six in both yards and points per game. Denver has just one more 500-yard player than Miami, and it’s the rookie Jeudy with 552 receiving yards. This club hasn’t beat a team with a winning record, either.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Broncos?

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