Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Point Spread: NFL Week 3 Odds, Prediction
Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off with an AFC East showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football in Buffalo. This is a tale of two division rivals going in opposite directions, as the Dolphins are reeling at 0-2 and the Bills are flying high at 2-0.
Miami got humiliated 33-8 by Indianapolis in Week 1 before losing 33-27 at home to New England this past Sunday. Buffalo opened with a thrilling 41-40 victory over Baltimore and then went on the road to trounce the Jets 30-10.
The recent head-to-head series is even more alarming for the Dolphins. They have lost six in a row and are a horrendous 2-15 against Buffalo dating back to 2017. Buffalo won the two meetings last year by a combined 24 points.
The Bills are 12.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 49.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Bills come in as massive 12.5-point favourites, making the Dolphins +12.5 against the spread. On the moneyline, the home side is -900 and the visitors are +600. The game total is set at 49.5 points, with the over priced at -115 and the under checking in at -105.
Buffalo has covered the spread in three of the last four encounters between these two teams, while the over is 4-2 in the last six. The Bills are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five games dating back to the 2024 campaign; the Dolphins are 0-3 ATS in their last three and 2-6 ATS in their last eight.
Miami Dolphins
No team has been a bigger disappointment so far this year than Miami. The Dolphins at least managed to be competitive in Week 2, but they could not run the ball, their defence was terrible and they squandered a fourth-quarter lead against the Patriots.
To say that this is a franchise in turmoil would be an understatement. Head coach Mike McDaniel is squarely on the hot seat and trade rumours are swirling around wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Focusing on the task at hand cannot be easy right now, so what’s to say the Dolphins on a short week will be fully prepared for a Thursday night game?
Buffalo Bills
Through two games, the Bills have already proven that they can win regardless of what Josh Allen does on the field. The reigning NFL MVP did basically everything in Week 1, torching the Ravens for 394 passing yards and four total touchdowns (two passing, two rushing). Seven days later, Buffalo beat the Jets by 20 points even though Allen threw for just 148 yards and did not account for a single touchdown.
Defence is the one question mark surrounding this team. It gave up 40 points to Baltimore and part of the reason why it held New York to only 10 was that Justin Fields left early in the fourth quarter due to a concussion. Moreover, defensive tackle Ed Oliver, linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Taron Johnson are all questionable for Thursday.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Bills?
The Dolphins surrendered 33 points against both Indianapolis and New England, not exactly two of the NFL’s offensive juggernauts. If that was the case in the first two weeks, just think what Allen and a high-powered Buffalo outfit can do to them in Week 3.
It should also be noted that four defensive starters are questionable for Miami, including DE Chop Robinson. Count on Buffalo winning and covering the spread in a relatively high-scoring affair, with the score finishing 33-17 in the Bills’ favour.
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