The 9-8 Jaguars clinched their home playoff game with a Saturday night victory over Tennessee last weekend. Jacksonville scored 10 unanswered points in the final quarter of their 20-16 win, one that they needed to clinch a post-season spot. Los Angeles finished the regular-season 10-7, having a four-game win streak snapped last week at Denver in what was a meaningless game for L.A., and a 31-28 loss.

Saturday’s also the post-season debuts of up-and-coming quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. Lawrence, drafted in 2021, was the first of back-to-back first overall picks for Jacksonville prior to this season. Herbert was drafted sixth overall in 2020 and has over 14,000 passing yards in three NFL seasons.

Kickoff at TIAA Bank Field starts at 8:15 p.m. EST, with Los Angeles a small road favourite and the total at 47.5 on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This is the second meeting this season between the Chargers and Jaguars, and the first ended in a stunning result: a 38-10 Jacksonville victory in a game where Los Angeles was favoured by a touchdown. Lawrence passed for 262 yards in three touchdown in the Week 3 win at L.A., while Jacksonville as a team produced 151 rushing yards on 36 carries.

Jacksonville’s win over L.A. was the first time they’ve covered against the Chargers in their last 10 meetings. And even with that loss, the Chargers are 8-2 in their last 10 bouts with the Jags. L.A. has averaged over 31 points a game in those 10 games too.

The Chargers covered in seven of their nine road games this season, and are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Jacksonville. The over has hit in six of the last seven Chargers–Jaguars contests, but it’s the under that went 7-2 in Jacksonville’s home games this season.

Los Angeles Chargers

Even though L.A. had the five-seed locked up when they took to the field at Denver last Sunday, head coach Brandon Staley decided to play his starters for the majority of the game and it could cost the Chargers deeply. Leading receiver Mike Williams left the game with a back contusion, and defensive end Joey Bosa is again dealing with a core-muscle injury. The good, or lucky news for Staley’s squad, is early indications say both Williams and Bosa will be fine for this Saturday.

The Chargers averaged the second-most passing attempts per game this season with 41.8, and Herbert was one of two quarterbacks to eclipse 4,700 passing yards. Williams, Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett – the Chargers have a ton of weapons on offence – were all key contributors.

It’s run defence that L.A. needs to figure out for Saturday. L.A. allowed the fifth-most rushing yards this season at 145.8 per contest, an area Jacksonville will attempt to exploit again.

Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s been against some dreadful offences, but the Jaguars defence deserves a shoutout for allowing just 22 total points  combined in their final three games. Not to mention, last Saturday’s game-winning, playoff-clinching score was a Josh Allen 37-yard fumble return for a touchdown. Jacksonville finished just outside the top 10 with 20.6 points per game allowed, but of course the Chargers offence is a different animal.

But the Jaguars have shown they can play in back-and-forth contests too, finishing as a top-10 offence with 28.8 points per game. Trevor Lawrence put up over 4,100 passing yards to go with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while running back Travis Etienne Jr. had an 1,125-yard season in his first full NFL season. Christian Kirk had a team-high 84 catches, 1,108 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns as Lawrence’s favourite target.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Chargers vs. Jaguars?