Buccaneers vs. Packers Point Spread: NFC Championship Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 19, 2021

NFL: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers has a chance to move one step closer to his second Super Bowl ring when he leads the Packers against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on Sunday in Green Bay.

Tampa Bay
11-5
AT
January 24, 2021, 3:05 PM ET
Lambeau Field
Green Bay
13-3
Pointspread +3 -105
Moneyline +138
Over / Under o +53.5

37%

Betting Action

63%

Pointspread -3 -115
Moneyline -166
Over / Under u +53.5

37%

Betting Action

63%

The Green Bay Packers played their worst game of the season in Week 6 in Tampa. Aaron Rodgers & Co. get a shot at payback against Tom Brady and the visiting Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon in the NFC Championship game. This is the first ever post season meeting between the two future Hall of Famers. The Pack are 3-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 50.5.

Both these teams project as early 2.5-point underdogs for Super Bowl 55, if the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC title as they are favoured to do later Sunday. The Packers and Bucs would be short favourites over the Buffalo Bills (obviously depending on what happens Sunday).

NFC Championship Point Spread and Betting Analysis

It’s the first-ever postseason matchup between Brady, who has won three regular-season MVP Awards and a record six Super Bowl rings, and Rodgers, who should win his third regular-season MVP Award on Super Bowl Weekend (that’s when the voting is announced), but has just one Super Bowl ring to his credit. Both quarterbacks are future first-ballot Hall of Famers but neither one is showing signs of slowing down anytime soon.

Brady is, incredibly, in his 14th conference title game and was 9-4 in the previous 13 with the New England Patriots. Those nine wins are more than any other quarterback even has conference title game starts. Should the Bucs win here, they would be the first team to play in a Super Bowl in their own stadium.

Rodgers is in his fifth NFC title game and is 1-3 in the previous three – including a blowout loss at San Francisco last year – but this is his first time hosting one. In fact, it’s the Packers’ first time hosting the NFC title game since an upset loss following the 2007 season vs. the New York Giants in overtime. That would be Brett Favre’s final game in a Green Bay uniform, before Rodgers took over as the starter in 2008.

Green Bay was a short favourite when it visited Tampa in Week 6, but Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career, completing just 16 of 35 passes for 160 yards and two picks in the 38-10 blowout loss. The Pack had just 201 total yards. Brady threw for two scores and Ronald Jones rushed for 113 yards and two TDs to lead Tampa, which also had a defensive score.

The home team has covered five of the past seven in the series and won 15 of the previous 18 straight up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs closed as 2.5-point underdogs Sunday in New Orleans, but (presumably) ended the legendary career of Saints quarterback Drew Brees in a 30-20 victory – Tampa’s seventh straight road win. The Bucs had lost the two regular-season meetings largely due to turnovers, but Tampa didn’t give it away once on Sunday, and intercepted Brees three times. It was the first three-pick game of his playoff career. Overall, New Orleans turned it over four times, leading to three Tampa Bay touchdowns.

Brady had two TD passes and a rushing score in the win and is the fourth quarterback since the NFL merger to go to the conference title game in both conferences. Two injury notes for Tampa Bay: Receiver Antonio Brown, who was quiet vs. the Saints, had an MRI on his knee on Monday, which showed he has avoided serious injury. Defensive tackle Vita Vea, one of the best at his position in the NFL, fractured his ankle in October but has been designated to return from injured reserve. That doesn’t 100 per cent mean he will play, but it’s looking good. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their past five playoff games as underdogs.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay was a 7-point favourite last Saturday night vs. the Los Angeles Rams and was never in much jeopardy during the 32-18 victory. Rogers threw for two scores and rushed for one, and Aaron Jones (can be a free agent after this season) added 99 yards and a TD on the ground. After an incredible regular season, Davante Adams kept it going with nine catches for 66 yards and a TD. The Rams’ top-ranked defence allowed season highs in yards (484), first downs (28) and gave up the second-most points of their season. Rodgers now has eight straight playoff games with at least two passing TDs, which ties him for the longest streak in NFL playoff history.

The Green Bay defence was arguably the story against L.A., allowing 244 yards. The warm-weather Rams looked lost in the cold temperatures and the wintry weather surely should be a major advantage for the Packers again, on Sunday. The Pack are 16-0 all-time at home in playoff games in which they led at any point by double digits. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its past six postseason home games.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Buccaneers vs. Packers?

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