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Jeremy Perry
Browns vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 10 Odds, Prediction
The Cleveland Browns are just 3-5 on the year but they have some wind at their back. After beating the Cincinnati Bengals and then enjoying a bye week, it feels like they can still make something of their season. Don’t forget, the return of Deshaun Watson is not far off.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have won a number of shootouts this season: first at Baltimore against the Ravens, then in Detroit versus the Lions and versus the Chicago Bears last week. They’re 6-3 and look like a playoff team. Even so, they’re just a small 3.5-point home favourite on the NFL odds in this spot. Which side is the best bet here?
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Browns have been a good bet on the road of late as they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games facing a team with a winning record. However, they are only 2-7 ATS when their previous game was a Monday Night Football affair. They won that game and are just 1-6 ATS in their follow up game after a win.
As for the Dolphins, they’re 10-3 ATS in their last 13 at home versus a team with a losing record. Also, they’re 9-4 ATS follow a win. Keep in mind that the under has cashed in four straight Dolphins home games.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns were off last week but in their most recent game, they hammered the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals 32-13 on the Halloween Monday Night Football. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett played his best game of the season, completing 17 of 22 passes for 278 yards and a touchdown in a crisp, efficient performance, which included some downfield throws.
The key to this team’s success is the ground game. Nick Chubb carried the ball 23 times for 101 yards and two scores. Amari Cooper collected five catches for 131 yards and a touchdown, averaging 26.2 yards per catch, a clear indication that the Browns were able to successfully attack the Bengals down the field in the passing game.
The Dolphins had all sorts of trouble stopping the Bears running attack last week, although a lot of it was the running of quarterback Justin Fields. If the Browns can replicate that success on the ground, they’ll be in this game.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins scored a 35-32 win over the Bears in Chicago last week. Tua Tagovailoa continues to shine and the big reason for his improvement this year is obvious: the Dolphins invested in elite wide receivers and have given Tua the help he needs. Tyreek Hill caught seven passes for 143 yards and a touchdown against the Bears. He caught a 39-yard pass as part of a potent Miami passing attack, which racked up 302 yards. Hill leads the league in receiving yards and is the only wideout to hit the 1,000-yard mark (1,104).
The offensive line did not allow a sack and is gave the passing attack a chance to fully take flight against a struggling Chicago defensive front. That’s going to be key in this one as the Browns have 10 sacks in their three wins this season and just nine in their other five contests. If Tua has time to operate, the Dolphins should come away with the win.
CLE
MIA