Browns vs. Commanders Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
Washington rolled to a third straight victory with a 42-14 blowout in Arizona last week, while the Browns are coming off a 20-16 loss in Las Vegas.
The Commanders opened as three-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total sitting at 43.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Early betting action favouring Washington has pushed the line to Commanders -3.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. The total has shifted slightly to 44.5.
Cleveland won the last meeting on New Years Day two years ago thanks to Nick Chubb rushing for 104 yards and Amari Cooper picking up 105 receiving yards. Chubb hasn’t played yet this season because of a knee injury and Cooper has only finished with over 35 receiving yards once in four games.
The Browns are 1-3 against the spread this season and lost outright as favourites in their last two games. Points have come at a premium, leading to the Under playing in three of four games. Cleveland is carrying over some ugly football from last season, with the Browns going 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games.
Washington looks like they are turning the corner at 3-1 SU and ATS. The Commanders have been an exciting team to watch, hitting the Over three times this year, but they’re just 1-7 SU in their last eight home dates. Of course, seven of those games were with Sam Howell starting at quarterback, while Jayden Daniels has won his only home start this season.
Cleveland Browns
A late Cleveland rally fell short last week and the Browns tacked on another dismal loss in what should have been a winnable game against the injury-riddled Raiders. Deshaun Watson showed flashes of his former brilliance, completing all eight passes on Cleveland’s opening touchdown drive, but he finished the game 24-of-32 for 176 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception. The Browns’ offensive line has dealt with several injuries this season and Watson is suffering the consequences as he has been sacked an NFL-high 19 times.
History is not on Cleveland’s side at this point when you consider only 42 teams since the 1970 merger have made the playoffs after starting 1-3. If there’s one sliver of hope, it’s the Browns’ elite defensive unit, which ranks 11th in total yards allowed (299.0) and 10th in passing yards allowed (175.8) per game. There’s also hope that star running back Nick Chubb could return this week, so it’s worth keeping an eye on his status.
Washington Commanders
In a division with the Cowboys and Eagles, not may people would have predicted Washington would sit alone at the top of the standings, but that’s exactly where rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has led the Commanders. Daniels has been the clear-cut best rookie through four games, competing 82.1 per cent of passes for 897 yards, three TDs and one interception. He’s also proven to be a dual threat, generating another 218 yards and four TDs on the ground.
As good as Daniels and the Commanders have been, you might want to pump the brakes on them a bit this week. Washington has faced the Bucs, Giants, Bengals and Cardinals, who all represent average to below-average defences. Cleveland is another beast and they haven’t allowed more than 21 points for three straight weeks. If Denzel Ward is able to shut down Terry McLaurin, the Commanders whole offensive game plan goes out the window. I still think they win, but it will be a tight game.
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