Bills vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 6 Odds, Prediction
The first game of a staggered-start Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 6 features the Buffalo Bills and reigning league MVP Josh Allen visiting the Atlanta Falcons.
The Bills are -4.5 on the NFL odds with a total of 48.5 points.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Buffalo is very used to playing in primetime since QB Josh Allen blossomed into an NFL superstar. The 2024 NFL MVP is the betting favourite to repeat at +150. Allen might be the most unique QB in league history for all that he does, and the Bills are probably lucky to be a .500 club without him. Instead, they are +500 favourites to win the Super Bowl. Buffalo hasn’t been there since losing its fourth straight big game in 1993.
Under second-year QB Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta is not a primetime darling. Like the Bills, the Falcons eye their first Super Bowl title, but I don’t see that in the picture this year with the team priced +5000 to win the NFC and +185 for the playoffs.
The jury is still a bit out on Penix, the surprise No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, because he has only made eight starts in the league. But the lefty appears to be a keeper. The Falcons still have the NFL’s highest-paid backup in Kirk Cousins, who has a $27.5 million (US) salary this year. They would love to trade Cousins, but no contending team has suffered a major quarterback injury yet; some may simply not want to pay the 37-year-old Cousins big bucks, and he still has two years left on his contract.
This marks the 14th regular-season meeting between the franchises with Atlanta leading 7-6 and taking the last matchup, 29-15, at home in Week 17 of the 2021 season. Since-retired Matt Ryan was the Falcons’ QB that day, while Allen had one of his worst games in completing just 11 of 26 for 120 yards and three picks.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo entered Week 5 as the AFC’s only unbeaten team and was an 8-point home favourite against New England on Sunday night but they were stunned 23-20, easily scoring a season low in points. Josh Allen was good not great, throwing for 253 yards with two TDs and a pick while leading the team with 53 yards rushing.
Entering Week 4 and including playoffs, the Bills had a modern-day record streak of eight straight games without a turnover. That ended in a closer-than-expected Week 4 win over New Orleans and then they had three more giveaways Sunday. Teams rarely win in the NFL when losing the turnover battle, and Buffalo forced one Patriots takeaway. That snapped the Bills’ NFL-record streak of 26 straight games not losing the turnover margin.
Excellent defensive tackle Ed Oliver missed a fourth game in a row injured, but linebacker Matt Milano returned. The team’s 14-game home winning streak was snapped. It had scored more than 20 points in 16 straight home games, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest since the Patriots’ streak of 25 from 2016-2019. The Bills also had 11 penalties and didn’t score on three drives that ended in Patriots territory. Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its past six.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has alternated losses and wins over its first four as it comes out of its bye week – the Week 5 bye is the worst for teams simply as it’s too early. Now the Falcons could be beaten to a pulp late in the season while trying for a playoff spot with so many games in a row.
Second-year QB Michael Penix Jr., in his first full year as a starter, has been inconsistent this year in completing 62.4 per cent of his throws for three TDs and three picks. He’s one of three left-handed starting QBs currently in the league.
The Falcons are a run-heavy team behind arguably the NFL’s top all-around tailback in Bijan Robinson. He not only leads the team in rushing (314 yards) but also receiving (270 yards).
Coming out of the bye, the team should get back injured top corner AJ Terrell. He hasn’t played since Week 2. No. 2 WR Darnell Mooney missed all of training camp and then Week 1 with a shoulder injury. He got back for the team’s game pre-bye but was hurt in the 34-27 win over Washington. Atlanta is 3-8-1 ATS in its past 12.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Falcons?
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