Bills vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction
The Bills are priced as 3-point road favourites on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
This was an easy choice for the NFL to slot into its lone primetime window on Sunday: Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa in a matchup of MVP candidates – although neither will win, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson will – and with the AFC East title going to the winner. Miami also earns it with a tie and could finish as high as the AFC’s No. 2 seed. The Dolphins are a wild card team at worse.
Buffalo could finish as high as the AFC’s No. 2 seed as well with a win and as division champion but could miss the playoffs entirely with a loss. The Bills, who are the first NFL team since 2018 that could be its conference’s No. 2 seed or miss the playoffs entering final week of regular season, would earn a wild card spot with a tie; OR with a Pittsburgh loss or tie on Saturday in Baltimore; OR Jacksonville loss or tie on Sunday in Tennessee; OR a Houston-Indianapolis tie.
The Bills are 10-1 in their past 11 games against the Dolphins including playoffs. In Week 4, Buffalo trounced visiting Miami 48-20 behind 320 yards and four TDs from Josh Allen, who also rushed for a touchdown. Allen has 12 straight games with at least two passing touchdowns vs. Miami, the longest streak by any QB vs. one team in NFL history.
Buffalo Bills
I promise you that the other AFC playoff teams will be rooting for Miami here to keep the Bills out of the postseason because they are capable of beating anyone. Josh Allen & Co. have proved that during a season-saving four-game winning streak, although Sunday’s 27-21 home win over New England was a lot closer than it should have been. Allen struggled passing in completing just 15 of 30 for 169 yards and a pick but did rush for two TDs. Star pass-rusher Von Miller, a future Hall of Famer, was a healthy scratch. He has played a rotational role as he continues to work back from ACL surgery last year and also is dealing with some off-field issues. Fellow pass rusher AJ Epenesa returned to the field after missing two games with a rib injury and helped the Buffalo defence forced four turnovers, all in the first half, and sacked Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe three times. The Bills are looking for their fourth straight AFC East title.
Miami Dolphins
As noted, the Dolphins know their season at least continues even with a loss and while Coach Mike McDaniel surely isn’t going to simply punt this game, he might rest a lot of beaten up guys even if it means having to play on Wild Card Weekend. On Sunday, the Fins’ were blown out 56-19 in Baltimore, and for some reason the Miami coaching staff still had top pass-rusher Bradley Chubb on the field with the game out of hand. He suffered a season-ending torn ACL. The three three-time Pro Bowl selection leads the Dolphins with 11 sacks this season and took on a larger role after linebacker Jaelan Phillips tore an Achilles in Week 12. Former Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard left Sunday’s game with a foot injury and is not likely for Buffalo. No. 2 WR Jaylen Waddle sat vs. Baltimore and probably does again. QB Tua Tagovailoa banged up his shoulder but has downplayed it.