AFC South Division: 2022/23 Betting Preview and Predictions

People forget the Tennessee Titans were not just the AFC South division winners in 2021-22, but the top seed in the entire AFC at 12-5. The Titans choked at home in the divisional round of the playoffs, two weeks after 9-8 Indianapolis choked away a playoff spot with a Week 18 loss to 4-13 Jacksonville that ended their season.

Both Tennessee and Indianapolis made significant quarterback additions this season, while the lowly Texans and Jaguars are rolling with some promising youngsters under centre. The Titans addition of Malik Willis in the third round of the NFL Draft should be prefaced with the fact Ryan Tannehill is still Tennessee’s starter (for now), but 37-year-old Matt Ryan is now the guy in Indianapolis after a trade with Atlanta.

The upgrade of Ryan specifically has pushed Indianapolis to the top when it comes to the AFC South division winner odds. The Colts are currently -140 to win the division, followed by Tennessee at +160, Jacksonville at +730, and Houston last at +2800.

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson is officially out in Houston, making Davis Mills the clear-cut starting quarterback. Mills had an under the radar rookie season in 2021-22 with 2,664 yards and 16 touchdowns in 11 starts. Unfortunately for Mills, outside of veteran receiver Brandin Cooks, the offensive weapons in Houston are lacking. For example, fourth-round pick Dameon Pierce is Houston’s new starting running back.

Houston allowed the second-most yards a season ago at 384.4 per game, and while new head coach Lovie Smith is expected to help in that area… the Texans defensive personnel is only slightly improved. The club selected LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. with the third-overall pick though.

Houston’s win total is listed at 4.5 games with their Super Bowl odds at a league-high +15000.

Indianapolis Colts

Matt Ryan in at quarterback for Carson Wentz is the move that gives the Colts hope. On paper, Indianapolis has an extremely talented roster but lacked solid quarterbacking in pivotal moments. Ryan has 2021 rushing champ Jonathan Taylor at his disposal as well as third-year receiver Michael Pittman, who’s broken out as a No. 1 option. Aside from those two, the Colts lack of reliable playmakers may hold them back from being a legit AFC contender.

On defence, Darius (Shaquille) Leonard remains out after getting back surgery in the offseason but stars DeForest Buckner and Kenny Moore are back in the mix as well as free agent addition Stephon Gilmore, the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year. It’s on new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to make these stars gel.

Indianapolis’ win total is listed at 9.5 games with their Super Bowl odds at +1604.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Year two of the Trevor Lawrence era kicks off with a new quarterback-friendly head coach in Doug Pederson. Lawrence also has some new pieces on offence to work with, starting off with 2021 first-round pick Travis Etienne Jr., who is now healthy at running back. Jacksonville also added receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones in free agency, along with All-Pro guard Brandon Scherff. Long story short, things are headed in the right direction on offence.

The same can almost be said on defence, although there’s still a ton of work to do on a unit that finished 28th in points allowed last year. Jacksonville selected Georgia linebacker Travon Walker with the first-overall pick of the draft and added Rams cornerback Darious Williams in free agency. These additions should make slight improvements, but overall this defence is mediocre.

Jacksonville’s win total is listed at 6.5 games with their Super Bowl odds at +7530.

Tennessee Titans

Head coach Mike Vrabel has continued to find ways to get his team to victories throughout his first four years as the head man, but 2022 could be his biggest test. Recency bias has left a sour taste in critics’ opinions of 34-year-old quarterback Ryan Tannehill but truth is, he’s without star receiver A.J. Brown (traded) which also means defences can key in even more on star running back Derrick Henry. The Titans did add Robert Woods from Los Angeles to their receiving core, but he’s not the beast Brown is.

On defence, the Titans have star defensive end Jeffery Simmons and safety Kevin Byard. Tennessee tends to be an underrated defence given they ranked sixth-best in points allowed last season. A healthy Bud Dupree could make a big impact in the linebacking core as well.

Tennessee’s win total is listed at 9.5 games with their Super Bowl odds at +2323.

AFC South Division Standings Prediction

1. Indianapolis 11-6

2. Tennessee 9-8

3. Jacksonville 5-12

4. Houston 3-15