2024 NFL Passing Leader Odds, Prediction: Patrick Mahomes opens as the favourite

The odds are out for the 2024 NFL passing leader and Kanas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the way as a +500 favourite.

Let’s take a look at the favourites to lead the league in passing yards in 2024 and try to find a value pick.

2024 NFL passing leader odds

Patrick Mahomes (+500)

It’s easy to see why Patrick Mahomes is the early favourite to lead the NFL in passing yards in 2024. Besides being part of a stacked Kansas City Chiefs team, since 2018 Mahomes has thrown a league-high 28,140 yards; for context, Detroit’s Jared Goff is the only other quarterback who has thrown at least 25,000 yards in that timespan and he’s still over 2,600 yards behind Mahomes.

Mahomes averages 7.9 yards per attempts, third on the active list of QBs, behind only Jimmy Garoppolo (8.2) and Deshaun Watson (8.0), while the next closest quarterbacks are Tua Tagovailoa (7.7) and Aaron Rodgers (7.7).

The two-time league MVP led the league with a career-best 5,250 passing yards in 2022 and he’ll have even more weapons this year with the off-season additions of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy to an already stacked receiving corps.

C.J. Stroud (+600)

C.J. Stroud was named Offensive Rookie of the Year last season after finishing with 4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Stroud isn’t a mobile quarterback, so he relies on passing more than most elite starters. Outside of Kirk Cousins, who played only played eight games, and Joe Flacco, who played five, Stroud also led the NFL with an average of 273.9 passing yards per game in 2023.

With a new elite receiver in Stefon Diggs to target, Stroud is in a great position to improve in his sophomore season.

Dak Prescott (+750)

Dak Prescott provides solid value at +750 to lead the NFL in passing yards this season. He’s coming off the best completion percentage of his career in 2023 (69.5 per cent) and the loss of running back Tony Pollard means Dak will get a lot of opportunity to throw the ball. Dallas certainly won’t rely heavily on their run-game with Ezekiel Elliott as their main option.

Prescott finished second in passing yards in 2019 (4,902) and he likely would have led the league in passing yards in 2020 if an ankle injury hadn’t ended his season after five games. He averaged 371.2 passing yards per game in 2020, putting him on pace for a record 6,310 passing yards in a 17-game schedule. And let’s not forget Prescott finished third in passing yards last season (4,516).

Prediction

Give me Dak Prescott at +750 for all the reasons above and more. The Cowboys have no run attack, so they’ll rely heavily on throwing the ball and I fully expect wide receiver CeeDee Lamb to be back with the team and up to speed by the start of the regular season. The main reason I’m taking Prescott, however, is it’s a contract year and he’s looking to get paid. Look for him to pad his stats.

Last 10 NFL passing leaders