2024 NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes favoured to win third career MVP

With training camps in full swing, it’s time to look ahead to the 2024 NFL season. Lamar Jackson won his second career MVP award last year, but there is a long list of contenders in 2024.

Let’s jump right into the NFL MVP odds and look at the top contenders as well as a dark horse value pick.

2024 NFL MVP odds

Patrick Mahomes (+500)

We’re firmly in the NFL’s Patrick Mahomes era and he’ll remain the pre-season favourite to win MVP for the next several years. The three-time Super Bowl champ, three-time Super Bowl MVP and two-time regular season MVP is the face of a Kansas City Chiefs dynasty that is looking to become to first team ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

Mahomes is coming off the highest completion percentage of his career last season (67.2 per cent) and he was even better in Kansas City’s postseason run, throwing for six touchdowns and just one interception with a 69.8 completion percentage. As long as he continues to have elite targets to throw to like Travis Kelce and a head coach like Andy Reid, Mahomes will have a great chance to win MVP.

Josh Allen (+900)

Josh Allen opened as the favourite to win MVP last year and he remains one of the favourites to win in 2024. Allen had another spectacular statistical season in 2023, finishing fourth in passing yards (4,306), fifth in passing TDs (29) and tied for second in rushing TDs (15).

The knock against Allen is his tendency to take risks and turn the ball over. His 18 interceptions last season were second-most in the NFL and essentially cost him any shot at MVP. But, Allen is still one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the league. He’ll be in the running for MVP in 2024 if he can make smarter choices with the ball and lead Buffalo to a fifth straight AFC East crown.

Lamar Jackson (+1200)

The MVP race was wide open for most of last season until Lamar Jackson pulled ahead near the end of the year. Jackson won his second career MVP in 2023 by setting career-highs in completion percentage (67.2 per cent) and passing yards (3,678), while finishing with 29 total TDs (24 passing, five rushing) and seven interceptions.

Jackson has proven you can get value if you look further down the odds board. The Ravens’ QB started the year at +1400 to win MVP last year and he was +4000 before he won in 2019.

Value pick

Christian McCaffrey (+5000)

There are 17 players with shorter odds than Christian McCaffrey to win MVP and they’re all quarterbacks, so that tells you a lot about the award. Last year’s Offensive Player of the Year offers plenty of value to break the QB-MVP streak in 2024. Last season McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards (1,459), he was fourth in rushing TDs (14) and he averaged a career-best 5.4 rushing yards per attempt.

At 28-years-old, McCaffrey is still is his prime and he’s poised to get the ball a lot with the way the 49ers run their offence. If a non-QB wins MVP in 2024, it will be McCaffrey.

NFL MVP trends

• Quarterbacks dominate the award, with signal callers winning the last 11 MVPs.
• Only two players in the last 25 years have won back-to-back MVPs: Aaron Rodgers (2020 and 2021) and Peyton Manning (2008 and 2009).
• Wins matter. Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win MVP on a team that had less than 12 wins.
• The last defensive player to win MVP was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Since then, every MVP has been a quarterback or a running back.
• Three of the 11 players in NFL history who have won multiple MVPs are currently active in the league: Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020, 2021), Patrick Mahomes (2018, 2022) and Lamar Jackson (2019, 2023).

Last 10 NFL MVP winners

Year	Player	Team
2023	Lamar Jackson	Baltimore Ravens
2022	Patrick Mahomes	Kansas City Chiefs
2021	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay Packers
2020	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay Packers
2019	Lamar Jackson	Baltimore Ravens
2018	Patrick Mahomes	Kansas City Chiefs
2017	Tom Brady	New England Patriots
2016	Matt Ryan	Atlanta Falcons
2015	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers
2014	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay Packers