2023 NFL Week 1 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Here’s a quick look at the odds for all Week 1 NFL games, played Sunday unless noted.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday
The defending Super Bowl champion is 14-4 all-time in the Kickoff Game – Kansas City is 2-0 in it (one as the visitor) and Detroit plays in it for the first time. The Lions were playing as well as anyone down the stretch of the 2022 regular season and barely missed out on the playoffs. Now they are favored to win the NFC North for the first time. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and no one else does. That’s why they’ve won two Super Bowls under him and may win a third this year. However, star defender Chris Jones is holding out for a new contract.
Pick ATS: Kansas City
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
The two NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favourites face off in Carolina quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, and Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson, the No. 8 overall pick. Top overall QB picks like Young haven’t won their first career NFL start since David Carr way back in 2002 with Houston (0-13-1 since). The teams split last year, each winning on the road.
Pick ATS: Atlanta (buy down to -3)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
We assume that Bengals QB Joe Burrow will play. He got hurt very early at camp and didn’t play at all in the preseason but did return to practice last week. Burrow has led the Bengals to back-to-back AFC North titles but is only 1-4 in his career vs. Cleveland. QB Deshaun Watson’s Browns debut didn’t go well last season but at least all his suspension issues are in the past. These rivals split last year, each winning at home.
Pick ATS: Cleveland (buy up to +3)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is winless in its past eight Week 1 games and hands the ball to very raw rookie QB Anthony Richardson. Star running back Jonathan Taylor will miss the first four games on the PUP list and may be traded before activated regardless. Jacksonville won its final five regular-season games last year to win the AFC South and is definitely on the rise. It will be the Jags debut of former Falcons Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Ridley.
Pick ATS: Jacksonville
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings
The Bucs begin life without Tom Brady with former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield as the team’s starting QB, although no one believes he is the long-term answer. Tampa Bay earlier in camp lost No. 3 wideout Russell Gage to a season-ending injury. The Vikings were historically good/lucky in one-score games last regular season but the team’s obvious flaws showed up in a home playoff loss to the Giants. Four-time Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook was waived this offseason.
Pick ATS: Minnesota
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints
Many expect this to be the last season with Tennessee for QB Ryan Tannehill and former NFL rushing king Derrick Henry as both are trending downward career-wise – especially Tannehill, who might not even get to midseason still as the starting quarterback. New Orleans has a new QB in former Raider Derek Carr, but Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara is suspended the first three games.
Pick ATS: New Orleans (buy down to -2.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Will the 49ers have reigning NFL sack king and Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa? He remains away from the team looking for a contract extension. QB Brock Purdy missed most of the offseason recovering from shoulder surgery. It might be the NFL’s best roster overall but a lot of early questions. Maybe no team looked better this preseason than Pittsburgh, which went unbeaten. Second-year QB Kenny Pickett looked like a Pro Bowler.
Pick ATS: Pittsburgh (buy up to +3)
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders
Arizona is widely expected to be the NFL’s worst team and has the lowest over-under win total of 4.5. Star QB Kyler Murray is out at least the first four games on the PUP list. Recently acquired Joshua Dobbs should get the call. Washington will give second-year QB Sam Howell is second career NFL start. Might actually be a sellout crowd in Maryland because Washington fans are so happy that former owner Dan Snyder sold the team.
Pick ATS: Washington (buy down to -6.5)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Very possible that Houston could have the NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year this season in No. 2 overall pick and QB CJ Stroud and No. 3 overall pick and pass-rusher Will Anderson. It’s also the head coaching debut of the Texans’ DeMeco Ryans. At one point this offseason, Ravens star QB Lamar Jackson demanded a trade, but he and the team worked things out. It’s the Baltimore debut of WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Pick ATS: Houston (buy up to +10.5)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The NFL’s oldest rivalry looks a lot different when the Packers don’t have a Hall of Fame QB on the roster like they did for the past 30-plus years in Brett Favre and then Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love will get his second NFL start for Green Bay under centre. Chicago’s Justin Fields is a rising star at QB in his third season and the Bears got him a few new offensive weapons this offseason led by former Panthers wideout DJ Moore.
Pick ATS: Chicago
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
It’s the Raiders QB debut of Jimmy Garoppolo. Top running back Josh Jacobs only recently reported to the team and signed his franchise tender, and the NFL’s 2022 rushing king will play. Coach Sean Payton makes his return to the NFL with Denver, which was an offensive disaster last year under former coach Nathaniel Hackett. QB Russell Wilson has lost a few wideouts to injury this year, led by Jerry Jeudy. Las Vegas swept the 2022 series.
Pick ATS: Las Vegas
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
The defending NFC champion Eagles look loaded again – they didn’t even feel the need to re-sign 1,000-yard rusher Miles Sanders, who is now in Carolina. QB Jalen Hurts took a massive step forward in Year 2, finishing as the NFL MVP runner-up. It’s probably a make or break season in New England for QB Mac Jones. New England signed former Cowboys Pro Bowl RB Ezekiel Elliott last month.
Pick ATS: New England
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, the No. 5 overall and No. 6 overall picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, face off. Herbert is currently the NFL’s highest-paid player thanks to his new extension, while Tagovailoa was playing at an MVP level last year before his concussion problems resurfaced. Miami traded for Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey this offseason, but he’s out injured. Offensive tackle Terron Armstead is in question.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles (buy down to -2.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
The Rams come off the worst regular season ever by a defending Super Bowl champion, and they probably won’t be much better this year. Star wideout Cooper Kupp, the 2021 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, is iffy for the opener with a hamstring injury. Seattle earned the NFC’s final wild card spot with a 19-16 home OT win over the Rams in Week 18 last year. Both of the Seahawks’ first-round picks in this year’s draft, cornerback Devon Witherspoon and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, are in doubt due to injury.
Pick ATS: Seattle
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Sunday night game. No shock these two meet in a primetime season opener. The Cowboys are 7-0 against the Giants in primetime Week 1 games all-time. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is 1-9 in night games in his regular-season career. Jones got a big new extension this offseason. Dallas has a new featured back in Tony Pollard with Ezekiel Elliott now in New England. The Cowboys won both meetings last season.
Pick ATS: New York
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, Monday
Of course, Aaron Rodgers’ first game with the Jets is in primetime. He has been about the entire focus of HBO’s “Hard Knocks” with the Jets this summer. New York certainly is talented enough to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since Joe Namath, but the Bills remain the class of the AFC East. It’s almost as if people are sleeping on Buffalo this year. Star pass-rusher Von Miller is out the first four games on the PUP list.
Pick ATS: New York (buy up to +3)
