2021 NFL MVP Odds: Is Tom Brady the clear-cut favourite?
If last year taught us anything, it’s how quickly the MVP field can shift based on late season playoff pushes. There are 26 teams still alive in the NFL’s playoff race, so there’s still plenty of time for a player to separate themselves in MVP voting. One interesting stat to consider is, 11 of the last 14 MVP winners have been a quarterback on the No. 1 or 2 seeded team in their respective conference.
Here’s a look at Sports Interaction’s 2021 NFL MVP favourites and some dark horse candidates whose stock could jump significantly higher over the final month of the season.
2021 NFL MVP Favourites
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-145)
2021 stats: 4,134 passing yards, 38 total TDs, 10 INTs, 67.7 QBR
A three-time MVP winner, Tom Brady currently leads the NFL in passing yards, completions and touchdowns thrown. He’s led the Bucs to a three-way tie with Green Bay and Arizona for the NFL’s best record and he’s doing this all at the age of 44. The scary part for every other team in the NFC is Brady only looks to be getting better as the season goes on, with his 94-yard game-winning OT drive last week, being the longest in the last 20 years in the NFL.
The G.O.A.T. reached 700 career touchdowns this season and became the league’s all-time completions leader. Brady is on pace for the second 5,000-yard season of his career and with Tampa’s four remaining games coming against teams with losing records, it’s tough to see Brady not finishing the season as the NFL leader in all major quarterback statistics.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (+535)
2021 stats: 3,219 passing yards, 30 total TDs, 4 INTs, 64.9 QBR
About this time last season, Aaron Rodgers was in the same position, only with Patrick Mahomes ahead of him instead of Brady. A late season push ended with Rodgers winning his third career MVP and he’s in a position to repeat this year. What really boosts Rodgers’ case is the lack of help he has compared to Brady. Rodgers is among the league leaders in all major quarterback statistics and he’s done it with less offensive depth on the Packers and more team injuries.
In Green Bay’s last three games, against the Vikings, Rams and Bears, Rodgers has thrown over 1,000 yards with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. It’s the final month of the season where he can really cement his case, though. The Packers play Baltimore and Cleveland in the next two weeks, so if Rodgers can win those games and lead Green Bay to the NFC’s top seed, it could be enough to help him win back-to-back MVPs.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+1000)
2021 stats: 3,642 passing yards, 29 total TDs, 12 INTs, 57.3 QBR
Mahomes has been the NFL’s golden boy since he entered the league, so how he handles his first dose of adversity in a tough statistical season by his standards could sway MVP voters. The 2018 NFL MVP has led Kansas City to a three-way tie with the Patriots and Titans for top seed in the AFC, thanks to a six-game win streak. He also ranks within the top-10 in completions, passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing first downs and QBR.
Like Rodgers, Mahomes is going to need a very strong final month of the season to unseat Brady as the MVP-favourite. The Chiefs can essentially lock up the AFC West with a win against the Chargers this week, although Kansas City will likely need to win the AFC’s top seed for Mahomes to have a chance at the MVP.
Dark Horse Candidates
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+1200)
2021 stats: 2,782 passing yards, 267 rushing yards, 24 total TDs, 9 INTs, 61.5 QBR
As Arizona terrorized teams throughout the first half of the season, Kyler Murray looked like a slam dunk for the MVP. Unfortunately, Murray missed three games with an ankle injury and he was also outduelled by Rodgers in a home loss against Green Bay. That’s tough ground to make up, with only four games left in the season.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+1300)
2021 stats: 3,898 passing yards, 33 total TDs, 9 INTs, 67.4 QBR
Another early season MVP candidate who dropped off the radar, Matthew Stafford is back in the running after a huge road victory in Arizona last week. It was Stafford’s 50th career three-touchdown passing game, which says a lot considering he spent 12 years in Detorit, and he now sits third behind Brady and Peyton Manning for most passing touchdowns in his first season with a new team. Stafford and the Rams likely need to win-out from here and teams like Tampa, Green Bay and Kansas City would need to stumble, but the former Lions quarterback is still in the MVP hunt.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+1400)
2021 stats: 3,822 passing yards, 268 rushing yards, 32 total TDs, 11 INTs, 67.5 QBR
Justin Herbert’s stellar performance in last week’s win over the Giants has kept the second-year quarterback alive in the MVP race. Herbert sits second in the NFL in passing touchdowns, fourth in passing yards and he’s the main reason the Chargers have a chance to win the AFC West. Another strong performance in the Week 15 Thursday nighter against Kansas City could move Herbert higher up the MVP list.
Long Shot Candidate
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (+6500)
2021 stats: 113 receptions, 1,489 receiving yards, 13.2 AVG, 12 TDs
We had to have at least one non-quarterback on this list and we settled on Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp over Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (+1600) because we like a long shot. Kupp embarrassed the Cardinals in Week 14, torching Arizona’s defence for 123 receiving yards and a touchdown. He leads the NFL in all major receiving statistics, including receptions, yards and touchdowns. and he’s doing it while being the main focus of opposing defences all season. If the MVP goes to a non-quarterback, Kupp is a leading candidate.
