NCAAF
Edgar Chaput
October 10, 2023

USC vs. Notre Dame: NCAAF Week 7 Odds, Prediction

Despite the discrepancy in the team rankings, it’s the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who are pegged as -2.5 on the NCAAF odds.

Pointspread

Over 9.5 -169
Under 9.5 +138

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

One of the reasons that Notre Dame values its independent status so highly is because it wants to maintain national rivalries like against Southern Cal. The Irish also play Stanford annually and thus can guarantee recruits one trip to California each year they are in South Bend. That obviously helps to lure California recruits to the Indiana-based football program. So even with USC off to the Big Ten in 2024, this will continue. The Big Ten of course wants Notre Dame badly, but that’s not happening for the foreseeable future.

USC and Notre Dame are two schools to have had seven Heisman Trophy winners – technically, USC has eight, but the 2005 award won by Reggie Bush was vacated. Current Trojans QB Caleb Williams was the 2022 winner and is the +225 second favourite to Washington’s Michael Penix to repeat. A huge game on Saturday night in front of what will be a massive TV audience can only help Williams’ chances.

Last year, USC beat Notre Dame 38-27 in LA, and Williams threw for 232 yards with a TD while rushing for three scores. The Irish lead the series 48-37-5.

USC Trojans

The voters for the Associated Press Top 25 have been rough on the Trojans (6-0) as they have fallen in the poll for three straight weeks despite remaining unbeaten. That Caleb Williams-led offence is truly something to watch at a national-best 51.8 ppg.

In Saturday’s 43-41 triple OT win over Arizona, Williams had a rather quiet game for him with just 219 yards and a TD passing. That’s why he fell out of the top spot on the Heisman odds board. And that USC defence is a massive issue. The Wildcats were playing without their star QB and running back yet led 17-0 early and totaled 506 yards. Colorado put up similar numbers on the Trojans the week before in another shootout. Monitor the status of star USC freshman wideout/returner Zachariah Branch as he missed a second consecutive game vs. Arizona as the result of an undisclosed issue. He has 13 receptions for 178 yards and two touchdowns as a receiver and two return scores.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This weekend concludes a murderous four-game gauntlet against ranked unbeaten opponents. The Irish are 1-2 in that stretch following a 33-20 loss at No. 25 Louisville on Saturday night. It really looked as if the ND players were worn down following previous wars against No. 17 Duke (close win) and No. 6 Ohio State (close loss). The 33 points allowed vs. the Cards were by far the most allowed by that excellent Irish defence this year.

Any shot transfer QB Sam Hartman had at the Heisman vanished with three picks in the loss to Louisville. He didn’t have an INT entering the game. Tailback Audric Estime, a leading contender for the Doak Walker Award as the country’s top tailback, was held in check as well with only 20 yards on 10 carries. No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff so that dream is likely already over for the Irish, but a third loss seals it.