NCAAF
Payton Matthews
August 22, 2023

Navy vs. Notre Dame Point Spread: 2023 Season Opener Odds, Prediction

The Irish as 20.5-point favourites on the NCAA odds and a total of 50.5 points.

Navy vs. Notre Dame Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This will be the third matchup between the long-time rivals in Ireland with the Irish winning easily in 1996 at Croke Park and again in 2012 at Aviva Stadium. This a “makeup” from 2020 when COVID canceled the trip overseas. The two schools had played 93 consecutive times, which was the longest intersectional rivalry in college football, until 2020 when the pandemic caused the game to be canceled outright. They tried to play it in Annapolis but it couldn’t be worked out.

Notre Dame leads the series 81-13-1 and has won five in a row over the Midshipmen. Last year, it was 35-32 in South Bend. Drew Pyne threw for 269 yards and four scores for the Irish but is now at Arizona State. Navy rushed for 255 yards and attempted only 13 passes.

Navy has beaten a ranked Irish team four times but not since 2019 in South Bend. The over is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings.

Navy Midshipmen

Navy fired long-time head coach Ken Niumatalolo after a 4-8 mark in 2022, the school’s third straight losing season. Defensive coordinator Brian Newberry was promoted to head coach. He brought in Grant Chesnut from Kennesaw State as his offensive coordinator. While the Middies might throw a bit more in 2023, they are still a service academy and will run the triple option and pound away on the ground. Navy rushed the ball 708 times last year and averaged 241.2 ypg on the ground compared to attempting 126 passes and averaging 85.8 ypg through the air. Tai Lavatai started much of last year under centre but tore his ACL and is now battling Blake Horvath for the top job. Both are likely to play Saturday. An upset by Navy would make Newberry the first head coach in school history to beat a ranked opponent in his first game. The Mids are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame finished 9-4 last season, the first full year for head coach and former defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman. The Irish had some really great wins (Clemson, Syracuse, BYU, South Carolina) and some puzzling losses (Marshall, Stanford). Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees left for Alabama and there will be a new starting QB this year in Sam Hartman, a transfer from Wake Forest who is among ACC passing leaders in many career categories. Hartman has thrown 77 touchdown passes since 2021, the most of any Power 5 quarterback. The Irish did lose All-American tight end Michael Mayer to the NFL Draft. If Navy throws an interception, it might be game over. Since 2021, Notre Dame is 14-0 when it has intercepted at least one of its opposing team’s passes, which is tied for the best streak in FBS. Benjamin Morrison tied for second nationally with six picks last year as a freshman. The Irish are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 neutral-site games.