Indiana vs. Notre Dame: 2024 College Football Playoff Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 19, 2024

The first game of the new 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off Friday night and is an in-state matchup as No. 10 Indiana visits No. 7 Notre Dame.

The Irish are priced as 7-point favourites on the NCAAF odds and a total of 51.5 points. These are two of the nation’s top defensive teams. 

Indiana vs. Notre Dame Point Spread Betting Odds

There my be no state in the USA that cares more about college basketball than Indiana, yet it is one of two states (Texas is the other with UT and SMU, but those two may not play each other) to have two teams in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff with No. 10 Indiana and No. 7 Notre Dame. The winner will be an underdog against SEC champion and No. 2 seed Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.

To win the national title, the Irish are +800, and I do believe they have a shot. No real surprise that Notre Dame is in the playoff – note that it can never be a top-four seed and get a first-round bye because the Irish are independents in football. Only conference champions get a first-round bye under the current format. The highest ND can be seeded is fifth.

Indiana is +4000, and I believe has no chance for a title but this season but it has been the best in school history under first-year coach Curt Cignetti. He has been so good since arriving from James Madison last offseason that IU already tore up his contract and give Cignetti a massive extension. He should win every National Coach of the Year Award. For a point of comparison, IU won a total of nine games the previous three seasons under former coach Tom Allen.

Notre Dame basically has avoided playing Indiana in football because the Irish are locked into so many rivalry games (USC, Stanford, Navy) and ACC games. It’s their first meeting since 1991, which is ridiculous. The Irish lead all-time 49-27 and 14-0 at home. 

Indiana Hoosiers

Not only are Indiana’s 11 wins a school record, it had been the only Big Ten school to never reach double-digit victories previously. First-year coach Curt Cignetti rebuilt this roster quickly through the transfer portal, luring a lot of his former players from James Madison but perhaps the biggest addition was former Ohio University QB Kurtis Rourke. His 181.4 pass efficiency rating is the best in the FBS entering the bowl season, and his 27 passing TDs are second in school history. IU’s only loss was 38-15 at then No. 2 Ohio State on Nov. 23, but then the Hoosiers rebounded in the regular-season finale by trashing winless Purdue 66-0 to guaranteed a spot in the playoff. Rourke tied a school record with six TD passes in that one. Indiana, fifth nationally in scoring defence (14.7 PPG), looks to end a 13-game losing streak against AP Top 25 schools and is 1-71 all-time vs. the AP Top 5 – Notre Dame is fifth in that poll – with 45 straight losses. Indiana also has lost six straight postseason games.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

There had been some chatter that NFL teams were interested in Irish coach Marcus Freeman, but the school locked him up this week to a big new extension that will make him one of the country’s highest-paid coaches. Notre Dame’s only loss was arguably the biggest upset of the entire season when it was a 28.5-point home favorite in early September against MAC school Northern Illinois and stunned 16-14. The Irish essentially couldn’t afford another loss after that one to reach the playoff, and they didn’t lose again – largely dominating. Led by Duke transfer QB Riley Leonard, one of the better running QBs in the country, Notre Dame is averaging 44.1 points during its 10-game winning streak, the best average in the FBS over that span. The defence has been good all season, allowing just 13.6 PPG, third in the FBS. The Irish are 4-0 vs. ranked opponents this year and have won six straight against them. That’s the longest such streak in the FBS. Notre Dame is 8-0 ATS in its past eight games. 

CFP Prediction: Who Will Win Indiana vs. Notre Dame?

Notre Dame 27, Indiana 17

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