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Jeremy Perry
Florida State (9) vs. Michigan (3) Odds: March Madness Elite 8 Prediction
Two squads that work together as teams – more so than a star player – will go head-to-head on Saturday in the Elite Eight. Can they take down another high seed on when they square off with No. 3 Michigan?
NCAA Tournament Odds and Betting Analysis
Florida State has played seven teams who are considered strong defensively, allowing 64 points per game or less and they’ve gone 4-3 SU and ATS in those games. They’re a dog again – a role they’re comfortable in – as they are 8-1 ATS and SU in their last nine as a neutral site dog of 3.5 to six points.
As for Michigan, they’re 13-6 ATS and 16-3 SU against good offensive teams who score 77 points per game or more. They’re 22-7 SU and 18-11 ATS against teams with a winning record. They are 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to six points.
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State has gotten to this point thanks to an incredible – and completely – team effort. Their bench has been phenomenal as the reserves have contributed 118 points, 59 rebounds and 22 assists in their three tournament games so far. Their run has been quite surprising when you consider that they had lost five of their last eight games before entering the NCAA Tournament. They’ve rallied and come together as a team. This team is deep and versatile, and can play almost any style that their opponent wants to go with. That’s what has allowed them to get to this point.
The Seminoles are going to continue to do what they’ve done: be the underdog, get overlooked and find a way to grind out wins. Yes, someone other than Mann will have to step up but that’s happened in each of the games so far. And while you’ll hear plenty about Michigan’s defense, Florida State’s isn’t bad either. They ranked 44th in the kenpom.com rankings and have collected 27 steals and 19 blocks during March Madness.
Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines are hot right now and some might wonder if they remember how to lose. This is a team that’s won 12 in a row, which is their longest winning streak since the 2013 season. They’re coming off a very impressive performance, stomping Texas A&M 99-72. Everyone knows they can play defense but if they’re going to shoot the way they did against Texas A&M, this team could win it all.
The challenge in this game for Florida State will be that they haven’t faced a defense like Michigan’s. Xavier wasn’t built around defense and that end of the court was Gonzaga’s weakness. Now the Seminoles will be tested by a team that ranked third in defensive efficiency in the kenpom.com rankings.
There’s no question that the Seminoles are deep – maybe even the deepest team left in the field – but they lack star power. Terance Mann will probably lead the way for them but they’ll need someone else to step up. The committee has worked against other teams but as we go deeper in the tournament, teams will need stars. This could be the end of their road unless Mann gets help.
