Hofstra (13) vs. Alabama (4) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
Buckle up. The Midwest Region delivers my favourite super-dog upset pick when No. 13 Hofstra takes on No. 4 Alabama at 3:15 p.m. ET on truTV in Tampa, Florida.
Hofstra returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000. Alabama, meanwhile, enters as one of the nation’s most explosive offensive teams, but with growing questions surrounding roster stability and defensive consistency.
The Crimson Tide are 11.5-point favourites to win on the March Madness odds, with the total set at 159.5.
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
This matchup pits Hofstra’s disciplined, physical half-court identity against Alabama’s high-octane, pace-driven attack. Hofstra ranks 50th in offensive rebounding, top 10 nationally in effective field goal percentage defence, and 93rd percentile in transition defence, while Alabama depends on quick-hitter transition offence, ranks 67th defensively, and outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding.
Hofstra has posted a 9-3 record against the spread in their last 12 games, and the Under is 9-4 in their last 14. Although Alabama is 16-4 straight up in its last 20 games as a favourite, they’ve gone just 5-6 ATS when favoured by 10+ points this season.
Hofstra Pride (13)
Hofstra enters March as one of the most dangerous mid-major teams in the field. Head coach Speedy Claxton has built a balanced group that excels defensively and plays with discipline offensively. Hofstra is driven by one of the best backcourts among lower seeds. Cruz Davis, the CAA Player of the Year, and freshman standout Preston Edmead form a dynamic duo capable of creating shots and stretching the floor. Both shoot efficiently from deep, helping Hofstra post a 36.8 per cent clip from deep.
The Pride benefit from a big frontcourt featuring Silas Sunday and Victory Onuetu, who anchor a terrific interior defence. Opponents struggle to generate clean looks at the rim, as Hofstra funnels action away from the paint and forces tough perimeter shots. The Pride also excel on the offensive glass, grabbing 35 per cent of their misses, which could be critical against an Alabama team that struggles to secure defensive rebounds (291st).
Hofstra’s five-game losing streak this year occurred when they were injured. Hofstra is 11-1 in its last 12 games and has proven it can compete with high-major teams, including wins over Penn, at Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and a four-point loss at UCF.
Alabama Crimson Tide (4)
Alabama takes more three-pointers than any team in Division I. The backcourt, led by Labaron Philon and Latrell Wrightsell Jr., drives the offence with shot creation and perimeter scoring. However, the recent loss of Aden Holloway, a 16.8 PPG scorer shooting over 42 per cent from three, is a significant blow to their spacing and firepower.
Alabama is also coming off a disappointing SEC Tournament loss to Ole Miss, where its offence stagnated in a slower-paced half-court setting.
March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win Hofstra vs. Alabama?
This matchup sets up perfectly for Hofstra to keep things close, and I even like them to win outright. The Pride have the defensive structure to force Alabama to be one-dimensional from deep, and they own the perimeter discipline to contest their high-volume three-point attack.
More importantly, Hofstra’s ability to control tempo and dominate the offensive glass could neutralize Alabama’s biggest strengths. If the game slows down, it plays directly into Hofstra’s hands. To pull off a big upset in March, you need awesome guards, and Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead profile as the type of giant-killing duo we come to fall in love with. Give me Hofstra +11.5 for sure, and I will also take them to win the game.
Best Bet: Hofstra +11.5