NCAA Basketball Futures: Dominant run shoots Michigan to the top of the leaderboard
March is coming fast, and the first two weeks of February have completely reshaped the national picture. The Arizona Wildcats finally fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, the Michigan Wolverines surged into the No. 1 spot and contenders across the Big Ten and Big 12 continue to trade heavyweight blows.
Injuries have also altered ceilings. Gonzaga, North Carolina and BYU all took major hits (Braden Huff is out for the year, Caleb Wilson is out indefinitely and Richie Saunders is out for the year).
Mid-major darling Miami (Ohio) now stands as the only undefeated team left in the country. Futures boards have reacted accordingly.
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How did the NCAA Tournament odds change?
Michigan now leads the national title market at +425 after a dominant stretch that included a 110-69 demolition of Penn State, a 20-point win at Ohio State and a 30-point rout of UCLA. The Wolverines have combined elite defence with relentless interior scoring and look every bit the part of a No. 1 seed poised to win the whole darn thing.
Arizona has drifted slightly to +450 after back-to-back losses to Kansas and Texas Tech. Duke sits at +650 following a 3-1 stretch, though its dramatic buzzer-beater loss to North Carolina exposed some vulnerabilities.
Houston (+750) continues to climb after four straight double-digit wins and now ranks No. 1 nationally per Bart Torvik since the calendar flipped to 2026. Iowa State and Illinois are both +1200, Florida is +1300 after tightening its grip on the SEC, while UConn has lengthened to +1500 after uneven performances. Purdue (+1900) and Kansas (+2000) remain in the mix.
Hot and cold teams to watch out for
Michigan is clearly in the “hot” category. The Wolverines erased a 15-point second-half deficit at Northwestern before winning by 12 and have been steamrolling quality opponents with balance on both ends.
Houston also belongs here. The Cougars’ veteran core and suffocating defence have fuelled a February surge, and a marquee road test at Iowa State will reveal just how high their ceiling sits.
Florida continues to impress, winning at Texas A&M by 19, at Georgia by 20 and beating Kentucky by nine. The Gators’ physicality and frontcourt dominance is translating in conference play, and the backcourt continues to slowly improve.
Wisconsin might be the most fascinating riser. The Badgers own arguably the three best wins in the country: at Michigan, at Illinois and a 21-point dismantling of Michigan State. Guards Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are on fire, and Nolan Winter gives them size and versatility.
On the colder side, Arizona’s aura of invincibility is gone. UConn has been playing with its food, and they lost at Madison Square Garden to St. John’s. Alabama’s eligibility ruling on Charles Bediako clouds its outlook. Illinois has cooled slightly amid injuries but just bounced back with a 20-point win over Indiana.
Best NCAA Tournament futures bet to lock in right now: Wisconsin to reach the Final Four (+2500)
This is a volatility play, and that’s exactly why the number is appealing.
The Wisconsin Badgers could lose in the Round of 64 by 15, or they could make a deep run. They shoot a massive volume of threes, play fast and space the floor with confidence. Boyd (20.6 ppg) leads all D1 guards in paint points while shooting better than 37 per cent from deep. Blackwell (19 ppg) gives them the highest-scoring backcourt duo in the conference, and Winter is evolving into a dependable seven-footer who can rim-run and pop.
Experience in the backcourt wins in March. Wisconsin has proven it can beat elite teams away from home, and its underdog mentality travels. At +2500, this is the kind of ceiling worth betting before the bracket drops and the number shortens.