Mountaineers to Stun Duke in Final Four

Al Dannity is going with his gut and says West Virginia will find a way to win against Duke and make the National Championship game.

Defiant Duke don’t sit well as favorites
Most of the logic center of my brain says I should back the Blue Devils to win tournament now that they face a fairly weak Final Four but one big alarm bell has kept ringing in my head throughout the tournament. At no stage this season, right up to now, has Duke (-160) looked like a team that could win it all and I’m not going to anoint a team that would have to back its way into a National Championship game to do it.

Plenty of teams that looked at least for a brief period like they would win it all have fallen by the wayside, actually they all have, but some of the teams that showed they could go all the way are still standing. Duke has had no more worrying moments than most but it’s how they have failed that should worry anyone with an interest in College Basketball betting.

We all remember that beat-down from Georgetown in front of President Obama but there were other moments too. Maryland frankly outsmarted them to earn a share of an ACC regular season title that was Duke’s to lose. Even in victory there have been question marks. In the first game with North Carolina this season Duke was horrible inside the arc in the first half. Duke have unleashed their big men since but look at what they have faced, a powder-puff #16 seed in Arkansas Pine-Bluff, an uninterested Wake Forest, and a Hummel-less Purdue. The first real test, against Baylor, was handled well but it’s not enough for me to be able to back them against possibly the smartest team in the tournament.

The Mountaineers know what winning takes
West Virginia (+135) were written off against Kentucky by plenty of writers, including me, as being on the wrong end of mis-match. We really shouldn’t have doubted Bob Huggins’ tactical genius. Even without Truck Bryant, who may return on Saturday, the Mountaineers always looked the better team. The 1-3-1 defense will have to be adapted on Saturday as Duke shoot the 3-point shot better than the Wildcats but rest assured Huggins will have an adjustment or three ready for Coach K.

Like Duke we saw some serious problems inside the arc with WVU, the difference was we saw those problems far more recently. The Mountaineers didn’t make a single field-goal inside of the 3-point line against Kentucky but always looked in more control of the game than Duke did back on that February night against the Tar Heels. Single game comparisons aside, West Virginia has looked more capable of mixing it up in March than any other team that made it to the Elite Eight, never mind the Final Four. It’s going to be close but it’s still going to be an upset. West Virginia to win.

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