Louisville (6) vs. Michigan State (3) Bracket Prediction: March Madnes Odds
Seemingly, everyone in the world was on No. 11 seed South Florida to take out No. 6 seed Louisville on Thursday, with Louisville star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. ruled out for the first weekend. The Cardinals almost gave it away, but you know how the saying goes: “survive and advance.” Michigan State, meanwhile, beat the brakes off North Dakota State.
Louisville vs. Michigan State NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
Louisville has been the definition of a Paper Tiger this year. In other words, per Haslametrics, they have really struggled to play competition at or above their level. Michigan State, on the other hand, is as reliable as it gets under Tom Izzo. The Michigan State ceiling is lacking without much shooting, but their floor is insanely high with the workman-like effort they put in.
This is a scary matchup, however, as Louisville takes three-pointers at the fourth-highest clip in the country, while Michigan State is 343rd in three-pointers attempted allowed.
Louisville Cardinals
Pat Kelsey’s second year in Louisville has been a roller coaster. After loading up in the transfer portal and in the high school recruiting ranks, Louisville came out with some early impressive showings. Things soured in December, and heading into conference play, it feels like they have just been keeping their heads above water. Five-star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. remains out for this weekend with a back injury, limiting their ceiling.
Still, Louisville struggles to shoot the ball exceptionally well (36.1% from three at high volume). On Thursday, the Cardinals’ X-factor, Isaac McKneely, went off for seven triples and 23 points, while Sananda Fru, J’Vonne Hadley, and Ryan Conwell also contributed double figures.
The defence is also a concern, ranking outside the top 50 in opponent two-point and three-point shooting. The Cardinals went 1-8 in Quad 1A games, ranking 57th in such games with a 125th-ranked defence.
Michigan St. Spartans
Tom Izzo may continue to run out an offence that looks like it’s from 1995, but hey, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, I guess. This team starts with Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads D-I in assists at 9.1 per game and tallied 11 in their 92-67 first-round win. Jaxon Kohler is typically the double-double machine, but it was his senior frontcourt mate, Carson Cooper, who went off for 20 points and 10 rebounds against NDSU. Coen Carr is the highlight-reel athlete, and he finished with 17 points. The Spartans can also go deep into their bench, recording 30 points from reserves on Thursday.
Michigan State defends and shares the ball with the efficiency we have come to expect. I still can’t fully get there with them because while Fears is a maestro orchestrator, Michigan State does not have a guy who can isolate, score at will, and take over a game. They are very team-driven, which isn’t bad, but limits their March ceiling. Still, MSU remained a top-eight team against Quad I opponents this year.
March Madness Round 2 Prediction: Who Will Win Louisville vs. Michigan State?
The Spartans’ matchup with Louisville scares me because I think of Michigan State’s trip to Madison this year when Wisconsin hit 15 triples and won 92-71, wire-to-wire. Louisville’s offence operates similarly, and if they pack the paint and make Michigan State shoot over the top and get into a three-point contest, Louisville will be in a much more comfortable position.
The Cardinals without Mike Brown make me want to say Michigan State, easy. But the matchup style tells me the upside for Louisville is strong. This is a very high variance game, and because both can get up and down, I’m happy to trust a lot of points being scored.
Best Bet: Over 151.5 (-110)