The Denver Nuggets survived a Game 7 in the opening round to advance. After blowing a chance to close out their Western Conference Semifinal in Portland on Thursday, they’ll now try to win a second straight Game 7 at home to extend their playoff stay. To do so, the Nuggets will have to corral the Trail Blazers backcourt. Three Blazers combined for 88 points in Game 6 and the Nuggets will have to put the clams on them if they hope to advance.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Trail Blazers are coming off a win and cover in their 119-108 victory in Game 6. However, Portland is still just 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games versus teams with a winning straight up record. The Trail Blazers are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games overall. Perhaps even more concerning is the fact that Portland is 0-5 against the spread in its last five games following a straight up win.

Meanwhile, Denver is 4-1 against the spread following a straight up loss. The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on two days of rest, so the consecutive days off before Sunday’s finale should work in their favor. The Nuggets have also followed up a league-best 34-7 home record during the regular season by going 5-2 on their home floor in the postseason.

Portland Trail Blazers

It’s no secret what it will it will take for Portland to win Game 7 on the road. It happened in Game 6: the tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum shouldered the load by combining for 62 points. Lillard, in particular, led the way with 32 points on 11-of-23 from the field, chipping in five assists and three rebounds along the way. The Trail Blazers don’t have the same depth that Denver boasts, so a lot of the pressure will be on Lillard and McCollum to perform. Meanwhile, Rodney Hood stepped up with 25 points off the bench in Game 6. He went 8-of-12 from the field. He’s been a key to the series as the Blazers 3-1 when he scores 15 or more. They’ve lost both games where he hasn’t hit that mark.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets’ path to success also isn’t a secret heading into Game 7. Nikola Jokic continued his absolute dominance in the series in Game 6 with 29 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists in Game 6. He’s going to get his in Game 7 the way that he has all series.

The key for Denver is whether or not the other key players on the roster can step up and help him to get the win. Jamal Murray will be crucial to the Nuggets success. A bad shooting game (Murray went just 7-of-20 from the field) led to a Game 6 loss. Meanwhile, Will Barton and Gary Harris combined for just 22 points on 7-of-19 shooting from the field. Malik Beasley went 0-for-8 from the field. As a result, the Nuggets bench scored just 13 points.

Denver’s big men should be able to win their matchup once again with Jokic and Paul Millsap taking care of business down low. However, the key to the Nuggets’ success will be a big game from Murray and more efficiency from Barton and Harris. At home in a Game 7, they should get back on track.