Today’s Sports Betting Picks – Thursday, June 1, 2023

Heat at Nuggets Game 1: First vs. worst

Denver entered the playoffs as the top seed in the Western Conference, while Miami is just the second No. 8 seed to ever reach the NBA Finals. The experience level in the Finals flips to the Heat’s favour, however. Miami has six returning players along with head coach Erik Spoelstra from their 2020 run to the NBA Finals. This is the Nuggets’ first trip to the NBA Finals in franchise history, although it’s worth noting Denver’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was a member of the 2020 Lakers championship team that took out Miami in the Finals.

The Nuggets are heavy -455 favourites to win the series. The favoured series result is Denver winning in five games at +238, followed by Denver in seven (+312), Denver in six (+396) and Denver in a sweep (+421).

The Game 1 odds see the Nuggets as 9.0-point favourites. Denver has won and covered the spread in the last six games between these teams. But, keep in mind only two of those six games featured a spread larger than four points and none of the spreads were larger than six points.

In the two matchups between the Nuggets and Heat this season, Denver won by five points at home on Dec. 30 and by four points on the road on Feb. 13.

Miami has been a great cover option in the postseason this year, going 13-5 ATS in 18 playoff games. Even if Nikola Jokic goes off for the Nuggets, the Heat should be able to keep Game 1 in reach and cover as 9.0-point underdogs.

NBA best bet: Miami to cover the spread (-110)

Jamal Murray: From Kitchener to the Finals

Kitchener, Ontario native Jamal Murray is on the NBA’s biggest stage as a key member of the Nuggets. Outside of Jokic, Murray is easily Denver’s biggest contributor. The 26-year-old guard has overcome serious injury issues after blowing out his knee in April 2021. Prior to that injury, Murray helped the Nuggets reach the Western Conference Finals in the 2020 playoff bubble, breaking through with a pair of 50-point games and two others with at least 40 points.

Now that Murray is back healthy, he’s help form one of the most dominant duos in the NBA with Jokic. Murray is averaging 27.7 points per game in the playoffs, second-most on the team behind Jokic, and he leads Denver with 1.7 steals per game. He’s scored at least 26 points in nine of 15 playoff games this year, including four of his last five games. With Jokic drawing the majority of Miami’s defensive pressure, bank on Murray putting points on the board in Game 1 of the Finals.

NBA best bet: Murray Over 25.5 points in Game 1 (-125)

Jimmy Butler: ‘Playoff Jimmy’ in full effect

Jimmy Butler rejects the moniker ‘Playoff Jimmy’, but there’s no denying the name fits. Through three playoff rounds, Butler is averaging team-highs in points per game (28.5), assists (5.7) and steals (2.1). Butler has recorded at least two steals in 12 of 17 playoff games this year and his 35 total steals in the postseason is 10 more than the next closest player.

NBA best bet: Jimmy Butler most steals in series (-250)