NBA: Miami Hold Slender Edge in Game 1 Against Dallas

Al Dannity likes the Mavs to win the series but he doesn’t expect them to get off to a winning start in Miami tonight. The Heat hold a slight edge for the opening clash of the NBA Finals.

A question of adapting
Miami have the hot hand for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Big performances in Game 4 and Game 5 of their series with the Bulls have given their superstars, particularly the overly-criticized Chris Bosh, the confidence they need to go toe-to-toe with Dallas in this upcoming series. That confidence should provide a big edge tonight, particularly when it comes to rotating defenders on Dirk Nowitzki. We can expect to see Bosh, Udonis Haslem, and LeBron James share time guarding the German big man but how they will rotate the duties remains a mystery.

In a tight game, and this promises to be a squeaker, that lack of information for Rick Carlisle could be the difference. The Mavs out-smarted the Heat in their two regular season match-ups but I like Erik Spoelstra to take an early lead in the tactical stakes. Carlisle will adapt, he will find a way to solve Miami’s approach to Dirk but I don’t like him to get it done tonight. Look for Miami to win as -4.5 favorites with Sports Interaction.

Not the re-match you think
Considering the Mavs and Heat met in the 2006 Finals, it would be natural to assume many of these players are clashing at this stage for a second time. In fact only four players from that series remain with the Mavericks and Heat in 2011. Given the amount of changes made by Miami in the off-season, it’s not too surprising that Dwayne Wade and Haslem are the only survivors from that championship team. NBA betting fans should however be surprised to learn that Nowizki and Jason Terry are the only Dallas players back for a second crack at the NBA Finals. In fact of all pairings where there were 6 years or fewer between the first meeting and the re-match, these NBA Finals have the fewest common players in league history. The one big thing to take from this is that 2006 offers little insight into this year’s Finals.

A long road ahead
While I like the Heat tonight, the Mavericks are my pick to take the series. The changes to Dallas since that 2006 defeat have been just as significant, if not as sudden, as the arrivals of LeBron and Bosh to Miami. The addition of big men like Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler has given the Mavericks more presence around the basket at both ends of the court. J.J. Barea’s speed is a perfect complement for Terry while Jason Kidd’s veteran skills should serve him well in this series. We’ve seen how good Miami can be and they have overcome deep rosters already in these playoffs. I expect a ding-dong battle to go at least six games but unlike 2006, I like Dallas to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy.