Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 6 Prediction, NBA Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated May 26, 2023

For the third time in this series, the Heat have a chance to advance to the NBA Finals as they host the Celtics in Game 6 of the East Finals on Saturday night.

May 27, 2023, 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread -2 -105
Moneyline -117
Over / Under o +208.5


Betting Action


Pointspread +2 -115
Moneyline -103
Over / Under u +208.5


Betting Action


The C’s have won the past two games and are 2.5-point favourites on the NBA odds.

Celtics vs. Heat NBA Playoff Betting Odds

With the Celtics winning Game 5 of the East Finals by a score 110-97 at home to cut the Heat’s series lead to 3-2, Miami is now -141 on the series line (-286 entering Game 5) with Boston +106 (was +204). The favoured exact result is Celtics in seven at +116, which is now where I lean, followed by Heat in six at +119 and Heat in seven at +471.

The Celtics are 2-0 in Game 6s, winning both on the road. The Heat have played a single Game 6, winning 96-92 at home vs. New York in the last round to eliminate the Knicks. 

Boston would have home-court advantage in the NBA Finals against Denver but Miami wouldn’t. The Nuggets are -192 title favourites, with the C’s at +268 and Heat +503.

Boston Celtics

The three-point shooting has completely flipped in the series and that’s the biggest reason why the Celtics have won back-to-back elimination games by double digits. In the 110-97 victory on Thursday, Boston was 16-for-39 from deep and outscored Miami by 21 points. Derrick White led Boston with 24 points, one of four Celtics to score at least 20. The Heat didn’t have any 20-point scorers. It was the fifth time in NBA postseason history a team had four 20-point scorers and its opponent had zero in a game and first since 2013. Boston’s plus-51 margin in points from starters was its third-largest in the playoffs since starts were tracked starting in 1970-71. If there’s one concern, the bench didn’t play well as Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon was scoreless in eight minutes. He’s playing through a torn tendon in his right arm and is no sure thing for Game 6. Payton Pritchard and White picked up Brogdon’s minutes. The Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their past seven.

Miami Heat

Miami never led and had 16 turnovers in Game 5. Not a huge surprise the Heat were held to a series-low 97 points playing without starting guard Gabe Vincent, who was out with an ankle injury suffered in Game 4. He’s averaging 17.5 points on 57.9% shooting overall and 50% from deep. Not clear if he will be ready by Saturday. The last thing the Heat needed was another injury in the backcourt with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo already out. Former Raptor Kyle Lowry started for Vincent in Game 5 and wasn’t a factor in 30 minutes. Jimmy Butler was held to just 14 points. Centre Bam Adebayo had six turnovers Thursday and now has 10 the past two games. Duncan Robinson was a bright spot with 18 points off the bench. This is the first time Miami has lost back-to-back games in this postseason. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their past nine at home. 

Game 6 Prediction: Who Will Win Celtics vs. Heat?

NBA Predictions