Well, I can’t say I’m surprised. The Detroit Pistons yet again showed spectacular fight with their backs against the wall on the brink of elimination. Meanwhile, the James Harden and Donovan Mitchell-led Cleveland Cavaliers couldn’t get the job done at home, snapping their home playoff winning streak in dramatic fashion.

This is just another entry in a long line of postseason shortcomings for Harden and Mitchell when failing to win a huge playoff game with the odds stacked in their favour. And they went down convincingly, with the Pistons dominating Game 6 in a 115-94 blowout in Cleveland. The home team won each of the first four games in this series, but the road team has now taken two in a row. Game 7 shifts back to Detroit, tipping off Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET.

The Pistons are 4.5-point favourites to win on the NBA odds, with the total set at 206.5. 

Cavaliers vs. Pistons NBA Betting Odds

The home team has been favoured by either 3.5 or 4.5 points in all six games of this series. A critical metric for bettors: in five of the six games, the winning team has shot 38 per cent or better from beyond the arc. Furthermore, after the Cavaliers attempted just 16 free throws in Game 1 compared to the Pistons’ 35, Cleveland has logged 27 or more free-throw attempts in every game since, severely outshooting Detroit at the charity stripe.

Another massive trend revolves around Duncan Robinson. After missing the Game 5 loss, he returned in Game 6 to knock down four triples. Robinson has now made four or more three-pointers in four of the five games he has played in this series.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Game 6 in Cleveland was disappointing, to say the least, for the home fans. While Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and Evan Mobley combined for 59 points, it came on an inefficient 18-of-47 shooting performance. Off the bench, sharpshooters Sam Merrill and Max Strus failed to provide a spark, combining for a dismal 4-of-12 from deep.

Defensively, the Cavaliers continue to get burned by Detroit’s perimeter shooting. Robinson’s absence made a world of difference in Game 5, as the Pistons struggled to space the floor effectively without him. His return in Game 6 led to a scorching 16-for-36 three-point night for Detroit. If the Cavaliers continue to gamble and allow this many open looks, Cade Cunningham, Daniss Jenkins, Robinson and Caris LeVert are going to make them pay on their home floor.

Detroit Pistons

When they were down 3-2 to the Orlando Magic in the opening round, heading back to Orlando for Game 6, the Pistons decided their defence would carry them the rest of the way. Detroit allowed just 79 points in Game 6 and 94 in Game 7 of that series, winning each contest by 14 or more points.

Game 6 in Cleveland looked nearly identical to those defensive masterclasses. The Pistons’ defence seems to tighten to an astronomical grip when they are on the brink of elimination. Ausar Thompson has embraced his role as a versatile defensive anchor in these elimination games alongside Jalen Duren down low. This suffocating interior and perimeter protection allows Cunningham to increase his shot volume while Robinson and Jenkins handle the floor spacing.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Cavaliers vs. Pistons Game 7?

We have been saying it all series, but the Cavaliers simply do not possess the same defensive intensity or ceiling as the Pistons. In a do-or-die Game 7 at home with a healthy Robinson, the Cavaliers are facing an uphill battle. Harden and Mitchell have folded too many times in these exact situations, appearing thoroughly bothered and inefficient during Game 6.

Expect the Motown crowd to bring the energy. Give me the Pistons to cover the spread and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for a showdown with the New York Knicks. 

Best Bet: Pistons -4.5 (-110)

CAVALIERS

Away

100

PISTONS

Home

107

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Predictions

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