The Toronto Raptors cut their series deficit in half in the Eastern Conference finals, but the Milwaukee Bucks are the team getting a boost from the sportsbooks in Game 4.
The Bucks are 2.5-point favourites for Game 4 in Toronto on Tuesday night after they narrowly missed their chance to take a 3-0 series lead.
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The zig-zag theory is a popular betting practice for sports gamblers – particularly in the NBA playoffs. Team A wins Game 1 of a series, backing Team B in Game 2 is usually a sharp bet. Team B is more desperate for the win and will come out with a larger effort.
The only thing zig-zagging in this series is the point spread. The Raptors covered the spread as 2.5-point home favourites in Game 3, but are 2.5-point underdogs in Game 4.
It’s fair to say the small margin of victory didn’t instill confidence from NBA oddsmakers. The Bucks failed to cover in Game 3 but they still own a tidy 10-2 ATS record in these playoffs.
Game 3 snapped a four-game ATS losing skid for the Raptors who are 7-8 against the spread in the postseason. The Over cashed in Game 3 thanks to the two overtime sessions. The Over is now 7-3 in the last 10 games between Toronto and Milwaukee.
About 70 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are backing the Raptors to cover as 2.5-point home dogs while 76 percent expect Game 4 to go Under the 216-point total.
Milwaukee Bucks
Maybe the strongest indicator that the Bucks are going to pull away in this series is that they’re up 2-1 and they haven’t shot the ball well for most of the last three games. Milwaukee is shooting just 29.5 percent from 3-point land in the Eastern Conference finals.
Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Mirotic shot a combined 14-for-59 from the field in Game 3. That isn’t all because of Toronto’s defence either. The Bucks shot just 35.6 percent on uncontested shots in Game 3 including an 0-for-6 showing for Middleton.
Toronto Raptors
The Dinos won by the skin of their teeth on Sunday night. The question everyone is wondering is whether there will be any lineup adjustments made by Toronto coach Nick Nurse.
Starting guard Danny Green is struggling to find his shot and his primary backup, Norman Powell, is playing some of his best basketball in years.
Starting centre Marc Gasol may have saved his relegation to the bench with his showing in Game 3. He tallied 16 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists in likely his best playoff performance this spring.
Line History
Sports Interaction customers are placing their bets on:
| time | fav | line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening 20 May 3:28am | MIL | -2.5 -110 | O +216 -110 |
| Closing 21 May 10:59pm | MIL | -3 -105 | O +217.5 -110 |
Injuries
D.J. Wilson (PF)
D.J. Wilson (PF)
Sterling Brown (SG)
Pat Connaughton (SG)
Brook Lopez (C)
Ersan Ilyasova (PF)
Ersan Ilyasova (PF)
Tony Snell (SG)
George Hill (PG)
Nikola Mirotic (PF)
Fred VanVleet (PG)
Patrick McCaw (SG)
Pascal Siakam (PF)
Jeremy Lin (PG)
Chris Boucher (PF)
Chris Boucher (PF)
Serge Ibaka (C)
Danny Green (SG)
Danny Green (SG)
Patrick McCaw (SG)
Injuries
| player (position) | status | ats*current | o/u* | notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Wilson (PF) | Prob Tues | Ankle - 19 / 05 / 19 | 1-3 | 3-1 | + - |
|
Wilson is battling left ankle soreness but is likely to suit up for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Raptors. |
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| D.J. Wilson (PF) | Prob Fri | Ankle - 07 / 05 / 19 | 4-3 | 3-4 | + - |
|
Wilson has a left ankle sprain but is expected to suit up for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Raptors. |
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| Sterling Brown (SG) | Prob Tues | Back - 28 / 04 / 19 | 7-4 | 6-5 | + - |
|
Brown is battling back spasms but is likely to be available against the Celtics in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference second round. |
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| Pat Connaughton (SG) | Prob Wed | Ankle - 09 / 04 / 19 | 10-6 | 9-7 | + - |
|
Connaughton has a left ankle sprain but is likely to play Wednesday against the Thunder. |
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| Brook Lopez (C) | Out Wed | Rest - 09 / 04 / 19 | 10-6 | 9-7 | + - |
|
Lopez will not be in Wednesday's lineup as he will be given the night off to rest. |
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| Ersan Ilyasova (PF) | Prob Sat | Nose - 05 / 04 / 19 | 11-7 | 11-7 | + - |
|
Ilyasova is dealing with a nasal fracture but is expected to take the court against the Nets on Saturday. |
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| Ersan Ilyasova (PF) | Prob Thurs | Back - 01 / 04 / 19 | 12-8 | 13-7 | + - |
|
Ilyasova sat out the previous game due to a sore back but it is likely he will suit up against the 76ers on Thursday. |
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| Tony Snell (SG) | Ques Sat | Ankle - 24 / 03 / 19 | 15-8 | 15-9 | + - |
|
Snell is sidelined with a left ankle sprain and it is unknown if he will return for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Pistons. |
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| George Hill (PG) | Prob Fri | Groin - 20 / 03 / 19 | 16-9 | 15-11 | + - |
|
Hill missed the previous game due to soreness in his left groin but is expected to face the Heat on Friday. |
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| Nikola Mirotic (PF) | Prob Sun | Thumb - 20 / 03 / 19 | 16-9 | 15-11 | + - |
|
Mirotic is sidelined due to a fracture in his left thumb but it is likely he will return to action against the Pistons in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round. |
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| player (position) | status | ats*current | o/u* | notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred VanVleet (PG) | Prob Mon | Face - 08 / 06 / 19 | 2-0 | 1-2 | + - |
|
VanVleet sustained a facial laceration and chipped tooth in the previous game but is expected to suit up for Game 5 of the NBA Finals against the Warriors. |
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| Patrick McCaw (SG) | Prob Thurs | Personal - 15 / 05 / 19 | 7-4 | 6-6 | + - |
|
McCaw has been tending to a personal matter, but he is likely to return for Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Warriors. |
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| Pascal Siakam (PF) | Prob Sun | Calf - 04 / 05 / 19 | 9-6 | 8-8 | + - |
|
Siakam is expected to play in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference second round against the 76ers despite a right calf contusion. |
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| Jeremy Lin (PG) | Prob Tues | Back - 02 / 05 / 19 | 9-7 | 8-9 | + - |
|
Lin is battling back spasms but is expected to suit up against the 76ers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference second round. |
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| Chris Boucher (PF) | Prob Wed | Back - 01 / 05 / 19 | 9-7 | 8-9 | + - |
|
Boucher is dealing with back spasms but it is likely he will play in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Bucks. |
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| Chris Boucher (PF) | Ques Mon | Back - 18 / 04 / 19 | 13-8 | 9-13 | + - |
|
Boucher is dealing with back spasms and it is unclear if he will be available for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference second round against the 76ers. |
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| Serge Ibaka (C) | Out Tues | Rest - 09 / 04 / 19 | 15-9 | 10-15 | + - |
|
Ibaka will not suit up against the Timberwolves on Tuesday as he is to be rested. |
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| Danny Green (SG) | Prob Tues | Ankle - 07 / 04 / 19 | 15-10 | 10-15-1 | + - |
|
Green tweaked his ankle in the last game but it is anticipated that he will play against the Timberwolves on Tuesday. |
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| Danny Green (SG) | Prob Wed | Thumb - 01 / 04 / 19 | 18-10 | 12-16-1 | + - |
|
Green jammed his left thumb during the last game but it is unlikely to deter him from being available against the Nets on Wednesday. |
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| Patrick McCaw (SG) | Prob Fri | Thumb - 30 / 03 / 19 | 19-10 | 12-17-1 | + - |
|
McCaw has been debilitated with a sprained right thumb but will likely return to action against the Magic in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first round. |
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Line History
Sports Interaction customers are placing their bets on:
time fav line total Opening 20 May 3:28am MIL -2.5 -110 O +216 -110 Closing 21 May 10:59pm MIL -3 -105 O +217.5 -110 -
Injuries
D.J. Wilson (PF)
Prob Tues Ankle - 19 / 05 / 19D.J. Wilson (PF)
Prob Fri Ankle - 07 / 05 / 19Sterling Brown (SG)
Prob Tues Back - 28 / 04 / 19Pat Connaughton (SG)
Prob Wed Ankle - 09 / 04 / 19Brook Lopez (C)
Out Wed Rest - 09 / 04 / 19Ersan Ilyasova (PF)
Prob Sat Nose - 05 / 04 / 19Ersan Ilyasova (PF)
Prob Thurs Back - 01 / 04 / 19Tony Snell (SG)
Ques Sat Ankle - 24 / 03 / 19George Hill (PG)
Prob Fri Groin - 20 / 03 / 19Nikola Mirotic (PF)
Prob Sun Thumb - 20 / 03 / 19Fred VanVleet (PG)
Prob Mon Face - 08 / 06 / 19Patrick McCaw (SG)
Prob Thurs Personal - 15 / 05 / 19Pascal Siakam (PF)
Prob Sun Calf - 04 / 05 / 19Jeremy Lin (PG)
Prob Tues Back - 02 / 05 / 19Chris Boucher (PF)
Prob Wed Back - 01 / 05 / 19Chris Boucher (PF)
Ques Mon Back - 18 / 04 / 19Serge Ibaka (C)
Out Tues Rest - 09 / 04 / 19Danny Green (SG)
Prob Tues Ankle - 07 / 04 / 19Danny Green (SG)
Prob Wed Thumb - 01 / 04 / 19Patrick McCaw (SG)
Prob Fri Thumb - 30 / 03 / 19Injuries
player (position) status ats*current o/u* notes D.J. Wilson (PF) Prob Tues Ankle - 19 / 05 / 19 1-3 3-1 + - Wilson is battling left ankle soreness but is likely to suit up for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Raptors.
D.J. Wilson (PF) Prob Fri Ankle - 07 / 05 / 19 4-3 3-4 + - Wilson has a left ankle sprain but is expected to suit up for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Raptors.
Sterling Brown (SG) Prob Tues Back - 28 / 04 / 19 7-4 6-5 + - Brown is battling back spasms but is likely to be available against the Celtics in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference second round.
Pat Connaughton (SG) Prob Wed Ankle - 09 / 04 / 19 10-6 9-7 + - Connaughton has a left ankle sprain but is likely to play Wednesday against the Thunder.
Brook Lopez (C) Out Wed Rest - 09 / 04 / 19 10-6 9-7 + - Lopez will not be in Wednesday's lineup as he will be given the night off to rest.
Ersan Ilyasova (PF) Prob Sat Nose - 05 / 04 / 19 11-7 11-7 + - Ilyasova is dealing with a nasal fracture but is expected to take the court against the Nets on Saturday.
Ersan Ilyasova (PF) Prob Thurs Back - 01 / 04 / 19 12-8 13-7 + - Ilyasova sat out the previous game due to a sore back but it is likely he will suit up against the 76ers on Thursday.
Tony Snell (SG) Ques Sat Ankle - 24 / 03 / 19 15-8 15-9 + - Snell is sidelined with a left ankle sprain and it is unknown if he will return for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Pistons.
George Hill (PG) Prob Fri Groin - 20 / 03 / 19 16-9 15-11 + - Hill missed the previous game due to soreness in his left groin but is expected to face the Heat on Friday.
Nikola Mirotic (PF) Prob Sun Thumb - 20 / 03 / 19 16-9 15-11 + - Mirotic is sidelined due to a fracture in his left thumb but it is likely he will return to action against the Pistons in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round.
player (position) status ats*current o/u* notes Fred VanVleet (PG) Prob Mon Face - 08 / 06 / 19 2-0 1-2 + - VanVleet sustained a facial laceration and chipped tooth in the previous game but is expected to suit up for Game 5 of the NBA Finals against the Warriors.
Patrick McCaw (SG) Prob Thurs Personal - 15 / 05 / 19 7-4 6-6 + - McCaw has been tending to a personal matter, but he is likely to return for Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Warriors.
Pascal Siakam (PF) Prob Sun Calf - 04 / 05 / 19 9-6 8-8 + - Siakam is expected to play in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference second round against the 76ers despite a right calf contusion.
Jeremy Lin (PG) Prob Tues Back - 02 / 05 / 19 9-7 8-9 + - Lin is battling back spasms but is expected to suit up against the 76ers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference second round.
Chris Boucher (PF) Prob Wed Back - 01 / 05 / 19 9-7 8-9 + - Boucher is dealing with back spasms but it is likely he will play in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Bucks.
Chris Boucher (PF) Ques Mon Back - 18 / 04 / 19 13-8 9-13 + - Boucher is dealing with back spasms and it is unclear if he will be available for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference second round against the 76ers.
Serge Ibaka (C) Out Tues Rest - 09 / 04 / 19 15-9 10-15 + - Ibaka will not suit up against the Timberwolves on Tuesday as he is to be rested.
Danny Green (SG) Prob Tues Ankle - 07 / 04 / 19 15-10 10-15-1 + - Green tweaked his ankle in the last game but it is anticipated that he will play against the Timberwolves on Tuesday.
Danny Green (SG) Prob Wed Thumb - 01 / 04 / 19 18-10 12-16-1 + - Green jammed his left thumb during the last game but it is unlikely to deter him from being available against the Nets on Wednesday.
Patrick McCaw (SG) Prob Fri Thumb - 30 / 03 / 19 19-10 12-17-1 + - McCaw has been debilitated with a sprained right thumb but will likely return to action against the Magic in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first round.