The NBA differs from the NHL when it comes to their individual playoff awards. Rather than given an MVP trophy that represents excellence over an entire playoff run, the NBA gives an MVP specifically for the best player in the Finals. Theoretically, it resets every player’s performance in the playoffs, although voters likely still take the entire postseason into account to some degree.

One other important thing to remember about the NBA Finals MVP is that the award is almost always given to a player on the winning team, so it’s essentially a parlay. The last player from a losing team to win Finals MVP was Jerry West in 1969. What we’re saying is, pick the team you think will win first then make your MVP pick.

With that, let’s take a look at the top contenders to be named 2024 NBA Finals MVP.

Jayson Tatum (-120)

Boston’s Jayson Tatum is the clear favourite to win Finals MVP ahead of Game 1. The Celtics have absolutely dominated teams in the postseason, losing just twice, and Tatum has been the biggest reason for that success. He’s averaging team-highs in points per game (26.0), rebounds (10.4) and assists (5.9) while consistently fighting through double teams and the toughest defensive matchups.

One stat really stands out when determining how important Tatum has been to Boston’s success: when Tatum is on the floor this postseason, the Celtics have outscored opponents by 141 points. On top of that, he’s also averaging just 2.4 turnovers per game and his 2.44 assist-to-turnover ratio is the best of his playoff career.

Luka Doncic (+200)

Luka Doncic is the most skilled in this series and if the Mavs win, he’ll almost certainly be named Finals MVP. Heading into the Finals, Doncic is averaging team-highs in points per game (28.8), rebounds (9.6), assists (8.8) and steals (1.6). Through the first three rounds of the playoffs, he is the first player in NBA history to lead the playoffs in total points, rebounds and assists. That’s all in addition to Doncic also leading the playoffs in three-pointers made, free throws made and steals.

Doncic’s elite shot making and court vision have already helped him get through the tough defensive duo of Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns to win Conference Finals MVP (the NBA is giving out too many trophies), so does Boston really think they have anyone better to slow down Doncic?

Jaylen Brown (+700)

Jaylen Brown is likely the only other player who has an outside chance of winning Finals MVP. Brown won MVP in the East Finals (why not give out first and second round MVPs at this point) after averaging 29.8 ppg in the series and he was the Celtics’ best player when they reached the Finals in 2022.

The big improvement for Brown has been on the defensive side of the ball. He’s making smarter decisions without the ball and his size and athleticism likely means he’ll be tasked with shutting down Doncic. If Brown continues to produce offensively while holding Doncic to average stats, he’s great value to win Finals MVP.

Does anyone else have a shot?

No.

While I was tempted to leave this simply at “no”, I’ll give you one more sleeper pick who should probably be getting more love from oddsmakers. Kyrie Irving may be the Robin to Doncic’s Batman, but he has the ability to be a superhero in his own right. Or supervillain every time he steps on the court in Boston.

Irving, who is +1400 to win MVP, is averaging 22.8 ppg and I think those numbers have a chance to improve in the Finals when all the focus turns to shutting down Doncic. If Irving leads the team offensively and continues to defend well, there’s a world in which he could win Finals MVP.

Last 10 NBA Finals MVPs