Valentina Shevchenko vs. Taila Santos: UFC 275 Odds, Prediction

Valentina Shevchenko is defending her flyweight title for the seventh time as she prepares to face Taila Santos at UFC 275 on Saturday in Singapore.  Shevchenko has reigned supreme in the flyweight division for the last four years, while Santos is fighting for UFC gold for the first time in her career.

Shevchenko opened as a heavy -675 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Santos is a +435 underdog.

Valentina Shevchenko UFC 275 Odds

Shevchenko (22-3 MMA record) is No. 1 in the UFC women’s pound-for-pound rankings.  She debuted in the UFC in 2015 and since then has gone 11-2.  Shevchenko is currently riding an eight-fight win streak that includes notable finishes over Joanna Jedrzejczyk (won the vacant flyweight belt), Katlyn Chookagian and Jessica Andrade.  Her last fight was at UFC 266 last September, which ended in a fourth-round TKO victory against Lauren Murphy.

“Bullet” has made things look easy during her reign atop the women’s flyweight division and a win on Saturday would break Ronda Rousey’s record for most successful title defences by a female champion in UFC history.  Shevchenko has proven she can win in any type of fight, with eight career victories coming by KO/TKO, seven coming by submission and seven by decision.

Despite her striking ability, Shevchenko is a very cautious fighter.  Outside of her striking, the best parts of her fight game involve her clinch work and wrestling ability, although that won’t be as helpful against a bigger opponent like Santos.  Shevchenko is a natural bantamweight, but she’s been able to retain her speed and quickness at flyweight, which makes her a powerhouse in the lighter division.

Shevchenko’s fight statistics are fairly comparable to Santos so there are plenty of ways this fight could go.  Santos seems to be more comfortable standing up, so Shevchenko’s best strategy might be to move things to the ground.  She is physically stronger than Santos and her cautious and calculated attacks leave very little defensive holes.  If this fight hits the ground, Shevchenko likely wins.

Taila Santos UFC 275 Odds

Santos (19-1 MMA record) has proven herself to be a solid prospect despite losing her UFC debut by split decision against Mara Romero Borella in February 2019.  That was her only career loss and since then she’s rattled off four consecutive wins.  Santos earned her title shot after a first-round submission victory against Joanne Wood last November, which also helped her win a Performance of the Night Bonus.

Santos has picked up 10 career wins by knockout, six by decision and three by submission.  Her lone career loss was a fairly even fight that could have just as easily gone her way.  The one interesting thread with her four-fight win streak is that unlike her first UFC opponent, Borella, the last four fighters she faced were more skilled than physical.  Shevchenko is another skilled fighter, but she’s also very physical and athletic, which is something Santos has struggled against.

Santos is a powerful striker with knockout power, but she also has submission skills and could legitimately win standing up or on the ground.  She holds a slight 1.5-inch reach advantage in this fight and she has a bigger, more powerful frame, so her best bet is likely to rely on her striking ability.  If she can keep this fight standing up, she’ll have a chance to win.

UFC 275 Prediction: Shevchenko vs. Santos

Santos is a powerful fighter with a skillset that could lead her to UFC gold, but she’s still a few years away from true contention.  Shevchenko’s dominance in the division has forced the UFC to match her up with opponents before they are ready and that’s the case again with Santos.  Shevchenko wins by second-round stoppage.