UFC Vegas 95 Odds, Prediction: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac
This will be a rematch over four years in the making after Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac first faced off in February 2020, with Tybura winning by unanimous decision.
Spivac, however, opened as a -160 favourite to win the rematch on the MMA odds, while Tybura is a +130 underdog.
Marcin Tybura UFC Vegas 95 Odds
Tybura has a 25-8 record since his professional MMA debut in 2011. The 38-year-old from Poland is a former M-1 Global heavyweight champion and M-1 Grand Prix 2013 heavyweight champion. Tybura made his UFC debut in 2016 and has gone 12-7 in the Octagon. He’s comfortable winning in a variety of ways, with nine career victories coming via knockout, nine by decision and seven by submission.
Despite a middling overall record in the UFC, Tybura seems to have figured things out, going 8-2 in his last 10 fights. He has earned three Performance of the Night bonuses over that stretch, including last time out when he secured a first-round submission win against rising star Tai Tuivasa.
“Tybur” is well past being viewed as a heavyweight title contender, but he serves nicely as a gatekeeper for the division. He’s well-rounded, experienced and smart, which makes him a great test for fighters looking for a shot at the heavyweight belt in the future. I would expect Tybura to ease into this fight. His power has diminished and he hasn’t had a knockout win in three years, so he’ll likely be looking for a submission.
Serghei Spivac UFC Vegas 95 Odds
Spivac, who has fought professionally since 2014, is 16-4 in his career, winning eight of his first nine fights by first-round finish. The 29-year-old native of Moldova has competed in the World Warriors Championships, Eagles Fighting Championship, N1 Pro Nomad MMA and Real Fight Promotion. He joined the UFC in 2019, stringing together a 7-4 record in the Octagon.
Spivac was on a solid run, winning six of seven fights in a three-year period, capped by an electric first-round submission victory over Derrick Lewis that earned a Performance of the Night bonus. However, that success was halted last September in Paris when Spivac lost by second-round TKO against Ciryl Gane.
“Polar Bear” has improved considerably since he first faced Tybura and he should have the edge on Saturday, particularly on the mat. Spivac is one of the better wrestlers in the heavyweight division and he’s leaned on that skillset over the last few years. His improvement as a finisher likely means this fight won’t last five rounds.