Amanda Ribas eked out a three-round unanimous decision win in her first date with Mackenzie Dern at UFC Fight Night 161 in October 2019, but has struggled to find consistency while losing four of her past seven fights, capped by a five-round unanimous decision loss to Rose Namajunas in the main event at UFC Vegas 89 in March 2024. Dern has also fallen upon hard times, losing four of her past seven clashes but earned a earned the decision over Loopy Godinez last time out at UFC Abu Dhabi and remains pegged as the No. 6 contender in the UFC women’s strawweight division.

Ribas enters this intriguing matchup perched as a -190 favourite on the UFC Vegas 101 odds. Dern trails as a +160 underdog and the odds of this fight going a full five rounds are pegged at a short -200.

Mackenzie Dern UFC Vegas 101 Odds

Wins may be coming at a premium for Mackenzie Dern but the 31-year-old American has kept fans on the edge of their seats, with six of the clashes during her 3-4-0 run going the distance and three of those contests earning her Fight of the Night bonuses.

While Dern has proven she can go the distance after going a full five rounds three times over his past seven outings, she has also earned a reputation as s submission specialist, with seven of her 14 career wins coming by submission, including four wins by tap-out inside five minutes earlier in her UFC career.

Amanda Ribas UFC Vegas 101 Odds

Ribas has been bouncing between the UFC women’s strawweight and flyweight division in recent years, with mixed results. The 31-year-old Brazilian has won two of her past three as a strawweight, capped by a spectacular third-round finish of Luana Pinheiro at UFC Vegas 82. But while Ribas is a fierce striker, her win over Pinheiro represents her only TKO in 11 UFC contests.

Ribas is also comfortable changing levels, as indicated by the 11 takedowns she has recorded over her past five fights. But since submitting Emily Whitmire and Paige VanZant early in her UFC career, she has been unable to tap out an opponent in seven fights.

UFC Vegas 101 Prediction: Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas

While Dern enjoys more experience in championship rounds and is an accomplished grappler, she will be at a distinct disadvantage against a superior striker like Ribas if the action remains toe-to-toe. Expect this to be a long drawn-out contest, with Ribas earning the nod on points thanks to her superior striking and level changes.

Prediction: Ribas by Decision/Technical Decision (-115)