UFC Tampa Odds, Predcition: Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo

Billy Quarantillo is a -160 favourite on the MMA odds and Cub Swanson is a +130 underdog for the scheduled three-rounder.

Cub Swanson UFC Fight Night Tampa Odds

Ilia Topuria is the current UFC lightweight champion, and the 41-year-old Swanson, who fights out of California, is unranked in the division with a 29-14 career record dating to his professional MMA debut way back in 2004 (which was a loss).

Swanson has long been one of the UFC’s most popular fighters despite never competing for a title, but the UFC Hall of Famer’s 10 post-fight bonus awards in featherweight bouts are tied for the most in division history. Those don’t include his other performance bonuses, such as Knockout of the Night for a 2012 win over future UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira, or several Fight of the Year lists he was featured on for his 2016 win over Doo-ho Choi.

“Killer” has alternated wins and losses over his past six, which may bode well Saturday as he comes off a split-decision loss in June to Andre Fili. Swanson earned a Fight of the Night bonus there. The 5-foot-8 Swanson has a reach of 70 inches and his bouts average 11:41. He lands 4.67 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.86 with 59 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.04 per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 63 per cent.

Swanson has seven losses by submission, four by decision and three by TKO compared to 13 wins by KO/TKO, 12 by decision and four by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is via the judges at +300, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +400 and submission +1800.

That he wins in Round 1 is +800. Swanson’s last Round 1 victory was four fights ago in December 2021, taking out Darren Elkins by TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches).

Billy Quarantillo UFC Fight Night Tampa Odds

The 36-year-old Quarantillo is unranked in the featherweight division with a career 18-6 mark and lives in the Tampa area – about a 15-minute drive from the downtown Amalie Arena that hosts Saturday’s event (and all Tampa Bay Lightning NHL games). One of the guys Quarantillo made sure to include in his training camp was former opponent Shane Burgos, who beat Cub Swanson by split decision in 2019.

Swanson was inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame for his memorable war against Doo Ho Choi in December 2016, and Quarantillo hopes they can replicate that fight.

“When people ask me, ‘Are you excited for this fight?’ Yeah, I’m excited, but I know the type of violence he brings”, Quarantillo said. “I know the type of violence I bring. He’s in the Hall of Fame for – that’s how exciting he is. He had such an exciting fight that it put him in the Hall of Fame, and that’s the type of fights I want to have. … I think it’s going to be exciting, and if I catch him early, it will be a highlight-reel finish. But, if we go into deep waters that is where I feel the most comfortable. It’s going to be a war and I know people will tune in for it.”

Quarantillo, a former King of the Cage lightweight champion, has alternated wins and losses over his past eight and is off a second-round loss via submission (rear-naked choke) to Youssef Zalal in March. Overall, Quarantillo has three losses by decision, two by KO/TKO and one by submission compared to eight victories by KO/TKO and five each by decision and submission.

The 5-foot-10 Quarantillo has a reach of 70 inches and his bouts average 11:02. He lands a whopping 7.36 significant strikes per minute with 56 per cent accuracy and absorbs 5.57 with 43 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.24 per 15 minutes with 23 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 61 per cent.

For Saturday, Quarantillo’s favoured method of victory is by decision at +230, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +275 and submission at +500. To win in Round 1, he’s +450. A draw is +5000. That it goes the full three rounds is -115, that either fighter wins by KO/TKO/DQ is +145 and either by submission is +450.

UFC Fight Night Tampa Prediction: Swanson vs. Quarantillo

Quarantillo at -160. Tend to lean inside distance as this should be action-packed but would rather not back myself into a corner via method of victory.