UFC Rio Oliveira vs. Gamrot: MMA Odds, Predictions and How to Watch

The UFC lands in Rio de Janeiro this Saturday for the 13th time, and for the second time in a Fight Night series event. Despite officially being a Fight Night series event, UFC Rio 2025 promises a marquee atmosphere. The organization put together a packed card, with 14 Brazilian fighters and two former champions in action, making the event a true treat for the national audience.

Canadian viewers can check out the action beginning at 5 p.m. ET on Sportsnet.

Oliveira vs. Gamrot Odds

The UFC’s original plan was to schedule Charles “da Bronx” Oliveira to face Azerbaijani Rafael Fiziev, currently ranked number 10 in the lightweight division. However, an injury forced Fiziev out of the fight. Shortly thereafter, Mateusz Gamrot was confirmed as the replacement, taking over in the main event less than a month before the event.

The switch ultimately elevated the fight. Gamrot is currently ranked eighth and is enjoying a more consistent run than Fiziev, who was on a three-fight losing streak. For the public, it was a technical gain. For Charles, it was a more complex challenge. Even so, the Brazilian enters as a slight favorite in Sports Interaction’s UFC odds. Among the 2025 fights, few seem as unpredictable as Oliveira vs. Gamrot.

Charles Oliveira

With his sharp jiu-jitsu and the unconditional support of the Brazilian fans, Charles Oliveira arrives at UFC Rio 2025 looking to get back on track for the belt. A former lightweight champion, the São Paulo native has one of the most remarkable careers in the organization’s history. Oliveira holds the UFC record with 20 finishes, including 16 submission victories. Inside the Farmasi Arena, he will have a crowd of 14,000 cheering him on.

This will be Charles’s seventh fight in Brazil, where he maintains an impeccable record: six wins, five by submission and one by knockout, the last one over Jared Gordon in 2019 in São Paulo.
Since then, his career has only grown. Despite coming off a loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317 in July, Charles remains in excellent form. In his last 16 fights, he has won 13, and two of those losses were in title fights. The Brazilian’s record is impressive: 47 fights, with 35 wins, 11 losses, and one no contest.

The fight against Gamrot also marks a symbolic return. This is his first fight in Brazil since 2020, when he faced Kevin Lee in Brasília, in an empty gym during the pandemic. It will also be his first time in Rio de Janeiro since 2009, when he was still competing for Jungle Fight.

Mateusz Gamrot

On the other hand, Mateusz Gamrot arrives in Rio as a respected challenger. The Polish fighter accepted the fight with only 20 days of preparation, demonstrating confidence and courage to face a former champion on Brazilian soil.

A wrestling specialist, Gamrot aims to impose the pace and neutralize Charles’s jiu-jitsu. The fighter has 29 professional fights, with 25 wins, three losses, and one no contest. And one impressive statistic: in his three losses, he has never been knocked out or submitted. He has only lost by decision (two split and one unanimous).

His technical foundation comes from a solid track record on the mat. He has over 300 wrestling matches under his belt, including appearances in European and world championships. Trained under the guidance of world champion Andrzej Kościelski, Gamrot has transformed his foundation into one of the sharpest weapons in European MMA.

Before joining the UFC, he held two simultaneous belts at KSW, a prominent Polish event, in the lightweight and featherweight divisions. He arrived at the UFC in 2020 with an undefeated record of 17 wins, and has since accumulated eight wins and three losses.

With refined technique and above-average physical conditioning, Gamrot is considered a dangerous opponent, especially in long, five-round bouts.

Who will win Oliveira vs. Gamrot?

The main event of UFC Rio 2025 promises to be one of the most evenly matched of the year. Oliveira vs. Gamrot brings together two opposing but complementary styles: Charles’s offensive jiu-jitsu and his high-level wrestling.