UFC Mexico Fight Night 268 odds and betting predictions

The month of February is nearly over, but first, the UFC is gearing up for UFC Fight Night 268.

This event will take place on Saturday, February 28th at the Arena CDMX in Mexico and will feature 13 fights, including a co-main event in the Bantamweight division between the 9th-ranked Marlon Vera and the 10th-ranked David Martinez. 

Check out our live MMA odds board.

UFC Marlon Vera vs David Martinez: Martinez Win by Decision (-175)

Martinez enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-1 and 3-0 in the UFC, and his most recent UFC fight resulted in a win against Rob Font by unanimous decision back in September 2025. Through just three UFC fights, Martinez has mainly been a striker, averaging 4.85 significant strikes per minute.

In his MMA career, Martinez has won the majority of his fights by finish. That said, Vera has never lost by finish. Further, Vera has seen his last five UFC fights go to decision. Of these five fights, Vera lost four of them. Because no one has been able to beat Vera inside the distance, backing Martinez to win by decision (-175) is my first best bet.  

UFC Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green: Fight to go the Distance – No (-132)

Throughout his UFC career, Zellhuber has mainly been a striker, averaging 5.83 significant strikes per minute. As for Green, he has been more balanced in his UFC career, averaging 6.30 significant strikes per minute and 1.21 takedowns every 15 minutes.

While only one of Zellhuber’s last four UFC fights ended inside the distance, Green has seen seven of his last nine UFC fights end before decision. Considering Green’s high finish rate recently, backing this fight to end inside the distance (-132) is my favorite bet of the day.

UFC Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco: Santiago Luna Win by Finish (-230)

Luna enters this fight with a perfect MMA record (7-0), including 1-0 in the UFC. In that one UFC fight, Luna showcased pure striking ability while averaging 5.36 significant strikes per minute. 

Pacheco has the advantage in terms of striking volume, but he has lost both of his UFC fights. Further, Pacheco is absorbing 11.47 strikes per minute, which is a ton of volume at this level. 

Luna has won all his career MMA fights by finish, and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday. Back Luna to win by finish (-230).