UFC Fight Night: Thiago Santos vs. Magomed Ankalaev Odds, Prediction
The UFC is headed back to Las Vegas on Saturday night with UFC Fight Night 203. The main event is a light heavyweight bout between No. 5 ranked Thiago Santos and No. 6 Magomed Ankalaev, with the winner moving much closer to a title fight against division champion Glover Teixeira.
Ankalaev is a -600 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Santos is a +425 underdog.
Thiago Santos UFC Fight Night Odds
Santos (22-9 MMA record) actually debuted in the promotion as a middleweight at UFC 163 in 2013. After moderate success, he moved up to light heavyweight, taking out Eryk Anders by third-round TKO in September 2018. Santos won his first three fights at light heavyweight. All three fights earned him either Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night honours. That success led to a title shot against Jon Jones at UFC 239 in July 2019.
Santos eventually lost the back-and-forth title fight by split decision. He became the first fighter to ever win a scorecard against Jones. Following the fight, it was revealed that Santos suffered a torn left ACL, PCL MCL, meniscus and cracked tibia as well as a partially torn right meniscus. That was the first of a three-fight slide that also saw the Brazilian lose to Teixeira by submission and Aleksandar Rakic by unanimous decision.
“Maretta” returned to form with a dominant unanimous decision win against Johnny Walker last fall, but another loss could end his hopes at another title shot. Santos holds a one-inch reach advantage over Ankalaev and he is the heavier striker. His striking statistics, however, are overall fairly similar to Ankalaev. Santos has the advantage in significant strikes landed per minute (3.95 Santos, 3.6 Ankalaev). Ankalaev is more accurate (55 per cent accuracy Ankalaev, 48 per cent Santos).
Santos has an incredibly high gas tank and isn’t prone to making reckless moves. The Teixeira submission loss, however, exposed his weakness in ground defence. His takedown defence is just 66 per cent and he’s going up against an opponent who is capable of winning on the ground or standing up. Santos’ best strategy is to stay patient and be careful. Ankalaev has never fought a five-round fight, so capitalizing on a tired opponent in the later rounds should be a priority.
Magomed Ankalaev UFC Fight Night Odds
This will be the first main event for Ankalaev (16-1 MMA record). The Russian debuted in the UFC with an upset submission loss against Paul Craig in 2018. Since then, he’s been a perfect 7-0. This will be Ankalaev’s first fight against a perennial Top-10 fighter. He rattled off two first-round KO/TKO wins against Ion Cutelaba in 2020, before defeating Nikita Krylov by unanimous decision in early 2021. Ankalaev closed out 2021 with a commanding unanimous decision win against Volkan Oezdemir at UFC 267. The win cemented his place among the Top-10 of the light heavyweight division.
The 29-year-old’s strength and conditioning appears to be on par with Santos, but he’s never fought a five-round fight before so there’s still a bit of a question mark there. Ankalaev is a very patient, calculating striker, but he tends to fight at a slower pace, which could hurt him. He prefers to fight at a controlled pace, but his wins against Krylov and Oezdemir showcased his ability to handle aggressive fighters.
Ankalaev’s best strategy in this fight is to take things to the ground, where seven of his 16 career wins have come by submission. He averages 1.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and 85 per cent takedown defence, both numbers significantly better than Santos. If Ankalaev can make this a wrestling match, I like his chances.
UFC Fight Night Prediction: Santos vs. Ankalaev
The books have Ankalaev as a very heavy favourite, but all you need to do is look back to his UFC debut to know anything can happen. Santos has been a legit contender both in middleweight and light heavyweight for years, but he just hasn’t seemed the same since losing the title fight against Jones. Ankalaev will be cold and calculating in this fight and I don’t expect it to go the distance. Ankalaev wins by third-round submission.
