UFC Fight Night Perth Odds, Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates

There’s morning Eastern time MMA action Saturday as the main card of UFC Fight Night Perth from Australia is set to begin at 7 a.m. ET and is headlined by a welterweight bout between former champion Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates.

It is Prates who is the short -118 favourite on the MMA odds with Della Maddalena at -102 and an over-under of 2.5 rounds for the scheduled five-rounder.

UFC Fight Night Perth: Jack Della Maddalena

The current UFC welterweight champion is also its pound-for-pound king in Islam Makhachev. The 35-year-old Jack Della Maddalena, who will be fighting in his hometown of Perth, is ranked No. 1 in the division with a career MMA mark of 18-3. He is a former Reign Fighting and Eternal MMA welterweight champion.

Della Maddalena won the UFC welterweight belt at UFC 315 in May 2025 in Montreal by beating Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision. Originally scheduled to face Leon Edwards in March of last year, Della Maddalena was pulled from that fight and placed into a title bout with Muhammad when Shavkat Rakhmonov was unavailable due to a lingering injury.

That worked out well for the Aussie, who became one of four champions in UFC history to be signed through Dana White’s Contender Series along with Carlos Ulberg, Jamahal Hill and Sean O’Malley. However, Della Maddalena dropped the title in his next fight via unanimous decision defeat to Makhachev, who moved up from lightweight to become a two-division champion. And the fight wasn’t really close with three judges scored it 50-45 for Makhachev.

That snapped Della Maddalena’s 18-bout winning streak, his first defeat since May 2016 (or 3,458 days). At 5-foot-11, he has a reach of 73 inches and his bouts average 11:59. Della Maddalena lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.84 with 63.3 per cent defence – that’s tied for the best such defence among active UFC welterweights. His takedown average is 0.13 per 15 minutes with 10 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 64 per cent.

Della Maddalena has a finish rate of 78 per cent with 14 of his 18 career wins, but he has been to the judges in four of his past five after finishing opponents in his first four UFC bouts. His favoured method of victory Saturday is KO/TKO/DQ at +250 barely over decision at +300. Della Maddalena has earned Fight Night bonuses in six of his nine UFC fights with those six bonuses tied for fourth-most among active UFC welterweights.

UFC Fight Night Perth: Carlos Prates

The 32-year-old Carlos Prates, from Brazil, is ranked as the No. 5 welterweight in the UFC with a career MMA mark of 23-7. He was the welterweight champion of Standout Fighting Tournament 37, has fought in several organizations and earned a spot in the UFC via win over Mitch White in Dana White’s Contender Series in Season 7 (2023).

“The Nightmare” made his official UFC debut in February 2024 and beat Trevin Giles by second-round TKO (punch). Prates’ only loss in the UFC was via unanimous decision to Ian Garry in April 2025, but the Brazilian has bounced back since with victories over highly regarded Geoff Neal and former UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards.

Prates has the most finishes in the UFC since 2024 with six, has 91 per cent finish rate in his career (21 of 23 wins) and 100 per cent in the UFC. His six KO/TKO wins are tied for the fourth-most active UFC welterweights, and his knockdown average of 2.10 per 15 minutes is third-highest in UFC welterweight history. Prates has earned a Fight Night bonus in each of those victories.

Standing 6-foot-1, Prates has a reach of 78 inches – five better than his opponent – and his bouts average only 8:48. He lands 3.77 significant strikes per minute with 55 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.53 with 57 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.21 per 15 minutes with 100 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 80 per cent.

Prates’ favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +165, and that is the overall favoured method for either at -175. That is goes the full five rounds is +150 with no at -200.

UFC Fight Night Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

This should be a wildly entertaining fight that is too close to call, so we will take the easy way out: Either wins by KO/TKO/DQ at -175