UFC Fight Night Odds: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction

Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis both have a chance to separate themselves from the pack and possibly earn a heavyweight title shot with a win at Saturday’s Fight Night main event.

Blaydes is a -370 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Lewis comes in at +260.

Curtis Blaydes UFC Fight Night Odds

Curits Blaydes (14-2 MMA record) has earned everything but a title shot at the heavyweight belt.  Blaydes is riding a four-fight win streak and has only ever lost to Francis Ngannou.  Last year was a big year for the 29-year-old American.  Blaydes took down Junior dos Santos in January 2020 with a second round TKO.  “Razor” followed that up with a unanimous decision win over Alexander Volkov in June.  A win on Saturday would give Blaydes victories over two top-10 contenders in just over a year.  That would likely set up the rubber match between Blaydes and No. 1 contender Ngannou, which would directly lead to a title shot for the winner.

Although 10 of his 14 wins have come by knockout, there’s no doubt Blaydes will rely on his far superior wrestling skills in this fight.  Blaydes averages 6.63 takedowns per 15 minutes (Lewis averages 0.48) with 55 per cent accuracy (Lewis has 24 per cent accuracy).  The scary part about Blaydes’ skills, is he can threaten opponents with his dangerous striking while actually go for the takedown or vice versa.  Blaydes has the edge in average significant strikes landed per minute (3.74 for Blaydes, 2.53 for Lewis) with better accuracy (51 per cent for Blaydes, 49 per cent for Lewis).  His significant strike defence is also superior.  Blaydes only absorbs 1.86 significant strikes per minutes (Lewis absorbs 2.14) and has a 57 per cent defence (44 per cent for Lewis).

Derrick Lewis UFC Fight Night Odds

Derrick Lewis (24-7 MMA record) is one of the best knockout artists of all time in a division filled with strikers.  No other fighter in the heavyweight division has more knockouts than Lewis’ record of 11.  Coming into this fight on a three fight win streak, Lewis’ latest knockout win came at the expense of Aleksei Oleinik.  Lewis picked up a second KO against Oleinik in August 2020.  Before that fight, Lewis recorded a unanimous decision win over Ilir Latifi at UFC 247 and a split decision win over Blagoy Ivanov at UFC 244.

There has never been a better UFC heavyweight knockout fighter than Lewis.  He is an explosive striker, but he has more in his bag of tricks than just a powerful punch (although his powerful punch has ended plenty of fights).  Lewis relies on his overall strength and keeps opponents guessing with a mixture of punches, kicks and flying attacks.  He also knows the right time to strike.  Lewis’ superior cardio allows him to explosively swarm staggered opponents and end fights on his terms.

Blaydes vs. Lewis UFC Fight Night Prediction

This is essentially a wrestler versus a striker.  Both fighters want to see this fight end on the ground.  The difference is Blaydes wants to bring the fight to the mat to wrestle, while Lewis just wants to knock Blaydes out and leave him on the mat.  Lewis is known to be able to dictate his fights right from the start with explosive power, but Blaydes almost never gives up control.  It’s the cliche of the unmovable object versus the unstoppable force.  We like Blaydes to win by unanimous decision in this one.