UFC Fight Night Odds: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown Prediction

Two fan favourites are set to go at it in the co-main event of UFC Fight Island 7, as Carlos Condit and Matt Brown are set to face each other in a welterweight bout on Saturday.

While these fighters are no longer title contenders, they’ve always delivered entertaining fights and both have a reputation of being able to give out as much punishment as they receive. The line opened pretty even before slightly moving toward Condit, who is a -170 favourite on the MMA odds, while Brown is a +130 underdog.

Carlos Condit UFC Fight Island 7 Odds

It’s been a tough road for Condit (31-13) over the past few years, but it looks like he could be turning things around and returning to form. Starting with losing the welterweight title fight to Robbie Lawler at UFC 195 in 2016, Condit dropped five straight fights until he took a two-year hiatus from the UFC. Condit returned against Court McGee, last October, and picked up a unanimous decision win for his first victory since 2015.

This will be a tight fight. Both fighters are veterans of the sport, but likely well past their prime. Condit has an arsenal of several different weapons and is equally as likely win by KO/TKO, win by submission, or, honestly, to lose the fight. He has a 57 per cent significant strike defence, which very slightly edges his opponent’s 56 per cent defence and he has a better takedown accuracy at 55 per cent compared to 46 per cent for Brown. This fight would have bee great 10 years ago, but it’s tough to say how competitive Condit remains.

Matt Brown UFC Fight Island 7 Odds

After a two-year hiatus of his own, it looked like Brown (24-17) had his career back on track. In December 2019, Brown picked up a second round KO over Ben Saunders at UFC 245 in his return to the octagon, before suffering a second round TKO loss to Miguel Baeza, last May.

A skilled striker, Brown has a small advantage in significant strikes landed per minute (3.78 for Brown, 3.67 for Condit), significant strike accuracy (53 per cent for Brown, 38 per cent for Condit) and takedown average per 15 minutes (1.57 for Brown, 0.61 for Condit), as well as takedown defence (63 per cent for Brown, 36 per cent for Condit). Brown has been open about suffering sever post-concussion symptoms in the lead up to his break from the UFC. Like his opponent, Brown is a fan favourite, but knows this could very well be the last fight of his career

UFC Fight Island Prediction: Condit vs. Brown

This could have been the fight of the year when Condit and Brown were in their prime. Depending on how much gas is left in the tank for these fighters, this fight still has the potential to be one of the better fights on the card. It’s almost certainly the last UFC fight for the loser and could be for the winner, as well. It’ll be close, but Condit should pick up a split decision win.