UFC Fight Night 264 Odds, Predictions: Randy Brown, Gabriel Bonfim headline main event
Another top-tier UFC event takes place this weekend: UFC Fight Night 264. This event is scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 8, and will occur at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
UFC Fight Night 264 consists of 12 total fights, six on both the preliminary card and the main card. The night will conclude with a main event in the UFC welterweight division between the 14th-ranked Brazilian, Gabriel Bonfim and Jamaica’s, Randy Brown.
My article will preview three fights on this card, and provide a best bet for each tilt.
UFC Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown best bet: Gabriel Bonfim ML (-185)
My top selection for UFC Fight Night 264 will target Gabriel Bonfim to defeat Randy Brown in the main event. Bonfim enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-1 and 6-1 in the UFC. He is currently riding a three-fight win streak, the most recent being against Stephen Thompson by split decision in July 2025.
Bonfim has proven to excel at striking and grappling, averaging 4.54 significant strikes per minute, 4.03 takedowns every 15 minutes, and 1.6 submission attempts every 15 minutes. As for Brown, he enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-6 and 14-6 in the UFC. His most recent fight was a win against Nicolas Dalby by KO/TKO in April 2025.
Bonfim has the advantage in striking and grappling, plus he is in better form. Therefore, backing Bonfim to win is my play.
UFC Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim best bet: Chris Padilla ML (+165)
My second pick for UFC Fight Night 264 is for Chris Padilla to upset Ismael Bonfim on the main card. Padilla enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-6 and 3-0 in the UFC. His most recent fight was a victory over Jai Herbert in March 2025 via split decision.
Padilla employs a balanced fighting style, averaging 4.13 significant strikes per minute and 1.56 takedowns every 15 minutes. As for Bonfim, he enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-5 and 3-2 in the UFC. His most recent fight was a loss against Nazim Sadykhov by KO/TKO in February of 2025.
Bonfim may be considered the favourite, but Padilla’s track record in the UFC has been more than impressive. His striking volume doesn’t stack up to Bonfim’s; however, he has better grappling ability. For that reason, backing Padilla to win is my play.
UFC Hyder Amil vs. Jamall Emmers best bet: Hyder Amil ML (-150)
My final pick for UFC Fight Night 264 is for Hyder Amil to beat Jamall Emmers on the preliminary card.
Amil enters this fight with an MMA record of 11-1 and 4-1 in the UFC. Throughout his career, Amil has excelled at striking, averaging 6.84 significant strikes per minute. He has also shown grappling ability and is averaging 1.2 submission attempts every 15 minutes.
Emmers, on the other hand, has been inconsistent in the UFC, posting a record of 4-5. He has never won back-to-back fights in the UFC; therefore, backing Amil to win is my play.
