UFC Fight Night 250 Odds, Prediction: Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Israel Adesanya is a -160 favourite and Nassourdine Imavov is a +135 underdog on the MMA odds.

UFC Fight Night Riyadh: Israel Adesanya

Generally, Fight Night cards are reserved for younger guys in the UFC trying to make their name, the average fighters out there scraping out a living or older guys nearing the end of their careers. You normally don’t see fighters the quality of Nigeria’s Israel Adesanya (24-4), a former two-time middleweight champion currently ranked No. 2 in the division behind champion Dricus du Plessis and No. 1 Sean Strickland.

The last time the 35-year-old Adesanya didn’t fight for a UFC belt was in February 2019 when he knocked off the legendary Anderson Silva at UFC 234. “The Last Stylebender” followed with 12 consecutive title fights starting with a victory over Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236.

Overall, Adesanya lost four times in that stretch – including in three of his past four and that’s why he has been “demoted” to a Fight Night card. But it’s not as if Adesanya has fought poor competition as he was beaten by Strickland in September 2023 by unanimous decision and then by du Plessis last August by fourth-round submission (face crank) to lose the belt. It’s the first two-fight losing streak of his career. We should note that Adesanya also fought once in that stretch for the light heavyweight belt but was beaten via unanimous decision by Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259.

The 6-foot-4 Adesanya has a reach of 80 inches, which is really long, and his bouts average 18:18. In just UFC middleweight fights, his average fight time of 17:53 is the longest in divisional history. Adesanya lands 4.00 significant strikes per minute with 48 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.21 with 56 per cent accuracy. He has a takedown average of just 0.05 per 15 minutes with 12 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 75 per cent.

He has two losses by decision, and one each by KO/TKO and submission. The vast majority of his wins, 16, are by KO/TKO and the other eight by decision. Adesanya’s 13 knockdowns landed in UFC middleweight competition are tied with Silva for most in divisional history. For Saturday, Adesanya’s favoured method of victory is decision at +125, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +325 and submission +2000. To win in 60 seconds or less, he’s +4000. A draw is +5000.

UFC Fight Night Riyadh Odds: Nassourdine Imavov

The 29-year-old Imavov was born in Russia but moved to France at an early age and lives in Paris. He is 15-4 with one no-contest in a professional career dating to 2016 – also has fought at welterweight and light heavyweight — and is ranked No. 5 in the division. Adesanya is his biggest-name opponent yet after probably Sean Strickland, currently ranked No. 1 in the division and who beat Imavov by unanimous decision in January 2023.

“The Sniper” is unbeaten since then with three wins and that no-contest, coming against Chris Curtis at UFC 289 due to an accidental clash of heads. Imavov was last in the Octagon in September 2024 and beat Brendan Allen by unanimous decision. Allen was arguably the hottest fighter in the division on a seven-bout winning streak dating to February 2022, including five submission wins.

“My objective now is the belt,” Imavov said following the victory. He addressed UFC boss Dana White afterward, saying he had “proved himself” in terms of a title shot. Imavov might get one soon if he wins here, although Khamzat Chimaev likely would stay remain ahead of him following the scheduled UFC 312 title rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Strickland.

Imavov has three losses by decision and one by submission, while six of his wins are by KO/TKO, five by decision and four by submission — Imavov has earned four of his seven UFC victories by decision. That’s his favored method of victory Saturday at +300, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +600 and submission +800. That he wins in 60 seconds or less is +6000. That the bout goes the full five rounds is -175 with no at +130.

The 6-foot-3 Imavov has a reach of 75 inches – five shorter than Adesanya – and his bouts average 15:16. He lands 4.51 significant strikes per minute with 55 per cent defence and absorbs 3.20 with 58 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.88 with 36 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 78 per cent. This fight should largely be contested standing up.

UFC Fight Night Riyadh Prediction: Adesanya vs. Imavov

Adesanya has fought much better competition and it’s not as if his recent losses have been one-sided, so he’s the pick to win. If we had to pick a method, it would be by decision.