UFC Fight Night 246 Odds, Prediction: Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz

Jhonata Diniz is a -165 favourite on the MMA odds with Derrick Lewis at +135 for the scheduled three-rounder.

Derrick Lewis UFC Fight Night Odds

This marks the organization’s third visit to Edmonton and first since UFC 240 in July 2019. Jon Jones is the current heavyweight champion and Lewis is ranked 11th. The 39-year-old, from Houston, is 28-12 with one no-contest in a professional MMA career dating to 2010 and bit of a legend in the heavyweight division. Not so much because the Texan has been incredibly successful as he has never won a UFC title, but because his fights are usually brutally entertaining.

Lewis was a former Legacy Fighting Championship heavyweight king, but his only title bout in the UFC came in August 2021 vs. Ciryl Gane for the interim belt, and Lewis lost by third-round TKO (punches). Since then, “the Black Beast” is 3-4 following a third-round TKO (punches) victory over Rodrigo Nascimento in May.

This will be Lewis’ 30th heavyweight bout in the UFC, second-most in history behind Andrei Arlovski’s 42. Lewis’ 19 heavyweight wins are second to Arlovski’s 23, and Lewis’ 15 stoppage victories are the most in divisional history and fourth-most in UFC history via all divisions. Charles Oliveira holds the record with 20. All 15 of Lewis’ UFC stoppage wins are by knockout, the most in company history – and they are all via punches.

“I don’t even think about it,” Lewis said of the knockouts record. “Whenever its fight week, then y’all keep reminding me about the record. Other than that, I don’t even think about it.”

The 6-foot-3 Lewis has a reach of 79 inches and his fights average 9:09. He lands 2.48 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.48 with 40 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.57 per 15 minutes with 26 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 52 per cent.

Overall, Lewis has seven losses by KO/TKO, three by decision and two by submission with 23 wins by KO/TKO, four by decision and one by submission – way back in 2010 in the Worldwide Gladiator organization. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +200, followed by decision at +750 and submission +1600. A draw is +500. To win in Round 1, Lewis is +450, his shortest price on round betting. Two of Lewis’ past three wins were finished in the first round.

Jhonata Diniz: UFC Fight Night Odds

The 33-year-old Diniz got a late start to his MMA career in 2022 and thus has only eight bouts under his belt – all victories. He’s not ranked in the UFC heavyweight division but might be if he wins convincingly on Saturday. Diniz, a former Glory kickboxer, is replacing Alexander Romanov for this fight as Romanov was pulled for unknown reasons. Diniz admitted it was a big surprise to get the bout.

“We’re ready for him. … I think me vs. Derrick Lewis, this fight won’t go to the last round, and for sure it’s not to be a boring fight,” Diniz said. “I know how important is this fight for me and I know when I knock him out it will put me in another level in this organization.”

Diniz got his big break in September 2023 when he beat Eduardo Neves by first-round KO (punches) in Dana White’s Contender Series 62 to earn a contract with the UFC. This will be Diniz’ third fight in 2024 as he beat Austen Lane by second-round KO (punches) in April and Karl Williams via unanimous decision in August.

A total of seven of Diniz’s wins are by KO/TKO and that one by decision. For Saturday, he’s -120 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, +700 by decision and +2000 by submission. For a Round 1 victory, he’s +175. That the fight ends for either fighter via KO/TKO/DQ is -450, decision is +325 and submission +1100. That it goes the distance is +325 with no at -550.

UFC Fight Night 246 Prediction: Lewis vs. Diniz

Lewis has faced much better competition in his career, and thus we like him for the minor upset – it would be a true surprise if this goes the full three rounds.