UFC Fight Night 207: Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds, Prediction

The main event of UFC Fight Night 207 in Las Vegas on Saturday is from the heavyweight division as Alexander Volkov faces Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Volkov opened as a -175 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Rozenstruik opened at +130. The over-under is 3.5 rounds.

Alexander Volkov UFC Fight Night 207 Odds

Francis Ngannou is the heavyweight champion and the 33-year-old Volkov is ranked No. 7 in the division with a professional record of 34-10. “Thor” has never gotten a title shot in the UFC, but lost one to Vitaly Minakov in Bellator in 2013 and beat Attila Vegh in an M-1 Challenge championship fight in 2016.

Volkov debuted in the UFC in November 2016 with a split decision win over Tim Johnson. Volkov comes off a March loss via first-round submission to Tom Aspinall. This will be Volkov’s seventh UFC main event. He’s 3-3 in previous headliners.

The 6-foot-7, 255-pounder has 22 wins by KO/TKO, nine by decision and three by submission. A majority of his losses (50 per cent) are via the judges. Volkov’s bouts average 14:26. He lands 4.83 significant strikes per minute with 57 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.04 per minute with 53 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.52 per 15 minutes with 70 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 71 per cent.

The Russian is such a big guy that he’s primarily a striker. His favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +150, followed by points at +185 and submission at +900. Volkov will have a two-inch reach advantage on Rozenstruik.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik UFC Fight Night 207 Odds

Rozenstruik, a 34-year-old from Suriname, is 12-3 in his career and ranked No. 8 in the heavyweight division. “Bigi Boy” has yet to fight for a title and is a former WLF super heavyweight tournament champion in kickboxing.

He is perhaps best known in UFC circles for two specific knockouts. In June 2019, he knocked out Allen Crowder via punches in just nine seconds, the second-fastest in UFC heavyweight history behind Todd Duffee’s seven-second finish at UFC 102. Rozenstruik also knocked out Alistair Overeem at 4:56 of Round 5 in December 2019, the third-latest stoppage in UFC history. Alas, he comes off a unanimous decision loss to Curtis Blaydes last September.

Rozenstruik has earned 11 of his 12 career victories by stoppage, all by knockout. Two of his three losses are by decision. The 6-foot-2, 245-pounder’s fights average 9:30. He lands 2.80 significant strikes per minute with 46 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.07 with 45 per cent defence. His takedown average is literally zero per 15 minutes with a takedown defence of 75 per cent. His favoured margin of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +135, followed by decision at +600 and submission +2500.

That the fight goes the distance is +146 with no at -280. We don’t think it will.

UFC Fight Night 207 Prediction: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik

Rozenstruik by KO/TKO/DQ at +135.