UFC Atlanta Odds, Prediction: Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee
Michael Chiesa is a -350 favourite to win on the MMA odds and Court McGee is a +275 underdog.
UFC Fight Night Atlanta Odds: Michael Chiesa
Dricus Du Plessis the current UFC welterweight champion, and the 37-year-old Chiesa, who fights out of the Seattle area, is unranked in the division with a career mark of 18-7. Chiesa has never fought for a title in any organization and is likely best known as the winner of FX’s inaugural “The Ultimate Fighter: Live” in 2012.
“Maverick” is a streaky guy in the Octagon. At UFC 232, he beat Carlos Condit by second-round submission (kimura) to snap a two-fight losing streak and start a four-bout winning streak that included a victory over former UFC champion Rafael dos Anjos. That run was followed by a three-fight skid, but that has been followed by wins over Tony Ferguson via first-round submission (rear-naked choke) and against Max Griffin by third-round submission (rear-naked choke).
Chiesa was originally set to fight this past February on another Fight Night card in his native Seattle, but no opponent was ever announced so he was removed from the card.
“When [the UFC] offered me Court, I picked June just because I wanted to enjoy my summer, and I have some things in the broadcast world coming up in August,” Chiesa said of this matchup. “This was the right timeline, and you get to a point when you are fighting for so long, you want to fight in different places. I’ve never fought in Atlanta or in Georgia, so I’m excited. I was stoked on the opponent, Court is a veteran, a guy who has won The Ultimate Fighter. He’s someone I have a lot of respect for, a true veteran, extremely durable, hard to finish. It’s going to be a tough fight. I’m going to be challenged in the wrestling, challenged in the grappling in those situations, you have to fight fire with fire.”
The 6-foot-1 Chiesa, a southpaw, has a reach of 75 inches and his fights average 9:20. He lands 1.81 significant strikes per minute with 39 per cent accuracy and absorbs 1.66 with 54 per cent defence. Chiesa’s takedown average is 3.30 per 15 minutes with 48 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 61 per cent.
Rare to see a fighter with zero wins by KO/TKO, but that’s the case with Chiesa, who has 12 victories by submission and six by decision. Most of his losses (71 per cent) are via submission. His favoured method Saturday is by decision at +100.
UFC Fight Night Atlanta Odds: Court McGee
The 40-year-old McGee fights out of Utah and also is unranked in the division with a career mark of 22-13. The former heroin addict tried professional boxer briefly and mostly fought in local MMA promotions in Utah before winning the 11th season of “The Ultimate Fighter” over Kris McCray for his big break.
The end is likely near for McGee considering his age and that he has dropped eight of his last 12 fights, but he snapped a three-fight skid in October with a first-round submission victory (neck crank) over Tim Means in his native Utah. It was McGee’s first win by submission since catching Ryan Jensen in an arm triangle in the third round in October 2010, and his first win via any route since beating Ramiz Brahimaj by unanimous decision in January 2022. It improved McGee to 11-12 in the UFC.
“It was absolutely incredible,” McGee said after his first stoppage victory in 14 years. “Everything we practiced and trained came out in the fight, so it felt like a practice – just a little more intense. (I had a) little bit of adversity in my head when the rear-naked (choke) wasn’t locked up under his chin. It was pretty close and I elbowed back – a short choke is what I call it – and I switched sides and I was like just going to adjust and stay on top and try to land, and I just decided to hammer down and crank on it and got the win.”
The 5-foot-11 McGee has a reach of 75 inches and his bouts average 12:32. He lands 4.60 significant strikes per minute with 37 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.59 with 61 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.87 per 15 minutes with 25 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 69 per cent.
Most of McGree’s losses (77 per cent) are by the judges. He has 11 wins by decision, six by submission and five by KO/TKO. His favoured method Saturday is by decision at +500. McGee is the better striker than Chiesa, who is the superior grappler. That the fight goes the full three rounds is -150. I think it does.
