UFC 328 Odds, Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland

The UFC is headed back to the Prudential Center in New Jersey for a stacked card on Saturday night.

The main event of UFC 328 is a banger, with undefeated middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev putting his belt on the line against former champ Sean Strickland.

Chimaev is back in action for the first time since claiming the belt against Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319 last August.

Strickland, who lost his bid for the belt against Du Plessis early last year, gets a another shot after knocking out Anthony Hernandez in February.

Chimaev is a heavy -550 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Strickland is a +400 underdog.

Khamzat Chimaev

Chimaev is a perfect 15-0 in his professional MMA career, including 9-0 since his UFC debut in July 2020. A three-time Swedish national champion in freestyle wrestling, the 32-year-old Chechen is currently No. 3 in the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings.

“Borz” relied on his superior wrestling ability when he won the middleweight bout against Du Plessis by unanimous decision, earning a Performance of the Night bonus in the process. He’s not a one-trick pony, however, as he’s split his career victories with six wins by knockout, six by submission and three by decision.

And while Chimaev hasn’t devastated his opponents like when he first burst onto the UFC scene, he’s increasingly faced tougher assignments and found ways to control and dictate every fight. Keep in mind, each of Chimaev’s last three fights have come against former UFC champions in Du Plessis, Robert Whittaker and Kamaru Usman.

Chimaev’s biggest advantage in this fight will be his elite average of 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. Strickland doesn’t have the footwork to keep this fight standing up and this is over if it ends up on the ground.

Sean Strickland

Strickland is a veteran on the UFC roster, going 17-7 since his debut in the Octagon in 2014. The 35-year-old from California is 30-7 overall in his MMA career, which includes a stint as the former King of the Cage middleweight champion.

“Tarzan” won his biggest fight at UFC 293 in September 2023, beating Israel Adesanya by unanimous decision to claim the UFC middleweight belt. It was short-lived success, however, as he failed to defend the belt and he has now lost his last two title fights.

Sitting No. 3 in the middleweight rankings, Strickland was able to jump back to the top of the title challengers after knocking out Anthony Hernandez in February. It was Strickland’s 12th career knockout victory compared to 14 wins by decision and just four by submission.

Strickland will likely need to win by knockout if he has a shot against Chimaev. The odds say this fight goes Chimaev’s way if it’s decided on the ground or by points, so I’ll be looking to see how quickly Strickland can get back up from Chimaev’s takedowns. Strickland is a decent defensive grappler, so if if can wear out Chimaev, he still holds the power to end this fight early.