UFC 328 Odds, Prediction: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

One of the UFC’s favourite cities outside of Las Vegas is Newark, N.J., as the organization visits there for the 12th time overall Saturday night with an excellent UFC 328 card. The lone heavyweight bout on the main card features Alexander Volkov against Waldo Cortes-Acosta.

Volkov is -175 on the MMA odds with Cortes-Acosta 145 and an over-under of 2.5 rounds for the scheduled three-rounder.

UFC 328: Alexander Volkov

The current UFC heavyweight champion is Tom Aspinall and the 37-year-old Russian Alexander Volkov ranked No. 2 in the division, also behind Ciryl Gane, with a career MMA mark of 39-11. He held heavyweight belts in the M-1 Global promotion as well as Bellator but hasn’t gotten a title shot yet in the UFC despite being ranked No. 2, and it’s starting to irk Volkov.

“Honestly, I don’t understand at all policy in the UFC about me because sometimes I hear different things about my future in UFC,” said Volkov. “The situation is, UFC give me fighters to challenge them, if they’re ready or not for UFC title right now. It was the same with [Jailton] Almeida. He was on a good win streak, they put it to fight with me and after Jailton [his next] fight, they fired him. I’m just kind of on my way. I’m trying just showing everybody I became better and better. I’m ready for any fights.”

Volkov’s only losses in his past 11 are once to Aspinall (via submission) and twice to Gane (one by unanimous decision and one by split). He comes off a split-decision win over Jailton Almeida last October. A lot of people didn’t like that result – judges scored it 29-28, 28-29, 29-28 — as Volkov generally spent the fight from the bottom position due to Almeida takedowns.

The Russian is nicknamed “Drago” because he’s a giant like the fictional opponent in “Rocky” at 6-foot-7, 265 pounds. Volkov has a huge reach of 80 inches and his bouts average 13:03. He lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute with 57 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.86 with 53 per cent defence. He has the second-most significant strikes landed (1,162) in UFC heavyweight history. Volkov’s takedown average is 0.57 per 15 minutes with 66 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 68 per cent.

Volkov has earned one of five Ezekiel choke submissions in UFC history, doing so at UFC 293 against Tai Tuivasa, but his favoured method of victory Saturday is decision at +130. His last three fights have gone to the judges. Volkov seeks career MMA win No. 40, a rarity.

UFC 328: Waldo Cortes-Acosta

The 34-year-old Waldo Cortes-Acosta (that name rolls off the tongue) is from the Dominican Republic and ranked No. 4 in the division with a career 17-2 mark. The winner Saturday could be in shape to get a title shot late this year or early in 2027. There is an interim heavyweight title on the line next month at UFC Freedom 250 at the White House and the return of current heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall from multiple eye surgeries is still unclear.

“Salsa Boy” enters on a three-fight winning streak – all via knockout — and his only loss in the past nine was to Sergei Pavlovich last August via unanimous decision. Cortes-Acosta was last in the Octagon in January and took out Derrick Lewis by second-round TKO (punches).

This guy likes to fight at lot – he does have nine kids — as it will be his seventh UFC bout in only 13 months. Cortes-Acosta has won Performance of the Night bonuses in two of his past three. At 6-foot-4, he will give up three inches in height to Volkov and also two inches in reach. The Dominican’s bouts average 10:23.

He lands 5.54 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.38 with 56 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.44 per 15 minutes with 57 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 72 per cent. Both fighters will want to keep this standing up for the most part.

Cortes-Acosta’s favoured method of victory is also by decision but at +275. That it goes the full three rounds is -185 with no at +140. Either winning by decision is the same price as the distance.

UFC 328: Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta Prediction

We have been doing well in recent cards by passing on the winner and taking the overall method. We shall do it again with decision via either at -185.