UFC 326 Preview and Predictions: Rafael Tobias looking for fourth straight finish in UFC debut
As we roll into March, another awesome night of fights is set to take place at UFC 326. The event is scheduled for Saturday, March 7 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
A total of 13 fights are set to take place, starting at 5 p.m. ET with the early preliminary card. The preliminary card will begin around 7 p.m. ET, with the main card to follow around 9 p.m. ET. Be sure to stream the action on Paramount+.
My article will preview three UFC 326 fights and provide you with my best bet for each.
Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson best bet: Michael Johnson ML (-120)
My first UFC 326 best bet will target Michael Johnson to defeat Drew Dober. Johnson enters this fight with an MMA record of 25-19 and 16-15 in the UFC. His most recent UFC fight was a win against Daniel Zellhuber by unanimous decision back in July 2025.
Over the course of his UFC career, Johnson has mostly been a striker, averaging 4.28 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 39 per cent. This is compared to his grappling, where he averages 0.58 takedowns every 15 minutes.
This bout comes down to the current form of both fighters. Johnson is 4-2 over his last six UFC fights, which includes three wins in a row. Dober, on the other hand, is 2-4 in his last six UFC fights. They both have comparable striking ability, but based on the current form, backing Johnson to win at an affordable price of -120 is the move.
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs. Cody Durden best bet: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (-146)
My second UFC 326 pick is for Nyamjargal Tumendemberel to beat Cody Durden. Tumendemberel enters this fight with an MMA record of 9-1, including 3-1 in the UFC. He most recently beat Terrance Saeteurn by submission in August 2025.
While Tumendemberel has not been in the UFC long, he has proven to have a balanced fighting style. He averages 3.18 significant strikes per minute, 3.10 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.6 submission attempts during the same period.
Durden has been decent over the course of his UFC career, but recently, he has been inconsistent. Over his last six UFC fights, Durden is 1-5, which includes 0-3 in his last three bouts.
Durden has the edge in striking volume and grappling, but has struggled to prevent submission attempts, an area in which Tumendemberel has excelled.
Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay best bet: Rafael Tobias win by finish (-135)
For my final best bet of UFC 326, let’s look for Rafael Tobias to beat Diyar Nurgozhay by finish. What makes Tobias an attractive betting option is his versatility. He has 11 combined wins by KO/TKO and submission, while Nurgozhay has already lost twice in the UFC by submission – both in his last two bouts. Further, only three of Tobias’ MMA wins have been by decision. Nurgozhay has looked shaky over his three UFC fights, so I’m backing Tobias to earn his fourth straight finish and sixth in his last seven outings.