UFC 316 Odds, Prediction: Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland is a -275 favourite on the MMA odds and Vicente Luque is a +220 underdog.
UFC 316 Odds: Vicente Luque
Jack Della Maddalena is the current UFC welterweight champion, and the 33-year-old Luque, who was born in New Jersey but fights out of Brazil, is ranked No. 14 in the division with a career mark of 23-10-1. He has never fought for a title in any organization in his career.
Not likely that’s in Luque’s immediate future, either, as he has lost three of his past five bouts but does come off a December victory against Themba Gorimbo at UFC 310, beating him just 52 seconds in via technical submission (anaconda choke). The result earned Luque another Performance of the Night award.
“The Silent Assassin” was originally to fight former WEC and Strikeforce welterweight champion Nick Diaz, but Diaz withdrew for undisclosed reasons. It seems like every original matchup that Luque has had of late has been changed or postponed.
The 5-foot-11 Luque has a reach of 75 inches and his bouts average just 9:37. He lands 5.05 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 5.22 with 52 per cent defence. Never good to absorb more significant strikes than you land. Luque averages 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes with 53 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 62 per cent.
“It’s one of the fights to get me back to the top,” Luque said of this matchup. “That’s what I’m looking for. I want to get back into that mix in the top five. That’s the goal for this year, and I think a fight against Holland – it’s not easy to get a ranked opponent right now, and I don’t want to wait. I’ve been waiting for a long time and I think that Holland is that kind of name who has been in the rankings in middleweight and welterweight.”
“I’m hungry. I’m going out there seeking a finish, either knockout or submission,” Luque continued in a recent interview. “I don’t really make a pick, but I fight with everything I’ve got, and I know that I have the capability of finishing anybody. So, I definitely think that this fight will finish before the three rounds, and I see myself getting a big win.”
Luque’s 14 stoppage victories in UFC welterweight competition are second-most in divisional history behind Matt Brown’s 15. Luque’s eight knockout victories and six submission victories are both tied for second-most in divisional history. But for Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +550.
UFC 316 Odds: Kevin Holland
The 32-year-old Holland (27-13 with one no-contest) fights out of Fort Worth, Texas, and is unranked in the UFC welterweight division. Holland is known for his short turnarounds and this will be his whopping 21st fight for the UFC since 2020, making him the company’s most active competitor in that span. Holland even fought five times during the 2020 COVID year and won them all.
This will be his 41st professional bout in just his 10th year and on three occasions, Holland has fought at least five times in a year. This will be his third already in 2025.
“My whole career I’ve always been pretty active,” said Holland. “Between super matches in jiu jitsu, Muay Thai, MMA, I’d fight seven to eight times a year. I’ve always fought a lot, never really sit on my butt too much,” he said. “I’ve had so many fights I don’t remember none of them. … I don’t really need much time in between fights, two days is typically all a man needs.”
“Trailblazer” had lost four of his past five before beating Gunnar Nelson by unanimous decision in March in a return to welterweight after spending his past three at middleweight (1-2). Holland fought the current UFC welterweight king in Jack Della Maddalena (wasn’t champion then) in September 2023 and acquitted himself well in a split decision.
The 6-foot-3 Holland has a reach of 81 inches and his bouts average 10:28. He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.10 with 50 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.77 with 37 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 54 per cent.
Holland’s 14 UFC victories are the most by any fighter signed from Dana White’s Contender Series. His favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +130. That the bout goes the distance is +150 with no at -210.
