UFC 316 Odds, Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley

Merab Dvalishvili took the title from Sean O’Malley with a unanimous decision win last September at UFC 306 and followed up with his first title defence last January, outlasting Umar Nurmagomedov to earn a unanimous nod from the judges at 311.

O’Malley has been idle since losing the UFC bantamweight strap to Dvalishvili late last summer after undergoing surging to repair a torn labrum suffered before his date with the reigning champ. The defeat halted a seven-fight unbeaten streak that featured for impressive knockout wins.

Dvalishvili has vaulted to a short -275 favourite on the UFC 316 odds while O’Malley trails as a +225 underdog, and the odds of Saturday’s main event going a full five rounds are pegged at -250.

Merab Dvalishvili UFC 316 Odds

Merab Dvalishvili has certainly demonstrated his durability during his lengthy win streak. “The Machine” has seen 11 victories during his current 12-0 run come by decision, with three of his past four contests going a full five rounds including his most recent outing versus Umar Nurmagomedov, which also earned him a Fight of the Night bonus. “The Machine’s” 10 wins by decision are also the most recorded by a bantamweight in UFC history.

Holder of a black belt in judo, Dvalishvili enjoys extensive experience as a wrestler and is a dominant force when changing levels. The champion recorded five takedowns in his first date with O’Malley and has recorded 29 total takedowns over his past four fights, which his helped him pad his UFC record total control time.

However, the 34-year-old Russian also has plenty of skills on his feet, outstriking opponents in each of his past 13 fights, and provided O’Malley with little opportunity to respond while limiting him to only 49 total strikes in their first fight.

Sean O’Malley UFC 316 Odds

Reportedly fully recovered from the hip surgery he underwent following his loss to Dvalishvili last September, Sean O’Malley will be eager to reclaim the UFC bantamweight title on Saturday night. However, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt must find ways to stay on his feet if he is to have any chance to avenge his UFC 306 defat.

While O’Malley has enjoyed past success against opponents adept at level changes, most notably Petr Yan, he was able to defeat the former UFC bantamweight champ by split decision at UFC 280 on the strength of a strong striking performance. That means improving on his career-worst 47-strike performance last time out by establishing the terms of engagement early and consistently stuffing Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts. A tall order, indeed.

UFC 316 Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley 2

O’Malley is a best when given the opportunity to go toe-to-toe with opponents but is at a distinct disadvantage against Dvalishvili, who has demonstrated his ability as a well-rounded fighter, both on the mat and on his feet. While O’Malley returns to action in better health, the longer this fight goes, the more it will favour the champion. That could force “Suga” to look for an early KO.

Prediction: Dvalishvili by decision/technical decision (-170)