UFC 315 Odds, Prediction: Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan
Brad Katona has struggled to find consistency in his second tenure in the UFC and he could be in danger of being dropped from the promotion if he doesn’t find a way to score a win against Bekzat Almakhan on Saturday in Montreal.
Almakhan is a -155 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Katona is a +125 underdog.
Brad Katona UFC 315 Odds
Katona, who hails from Winnipeg, Manitoba, but now fights out of Dublin, Ireland, is 14-4 in his MMA career, winning 10 times by decision, three times by submission and just once by knockout.
The 33-year-old made history as the only fighter ever to win The Ultimate Fighter twice. He won TUF 27, but he was dropped from the UFC after losing two of three fights.
Katona followed up his first disappointing UFC tenure with four straight wins while capturing the Brave CF bantamweight championship. That win earned Katona another look from the UFC, which he took advantage of by winning TUF 31.
Unfortunately, Katona’s return to the Octagon hasn’t gone the way he wanted. He debuted for the second time with a win over Cody Gibson at UFC 292 in August 2023, but overall, Katona is 2-2 since returning to the UFC, including a unanimous decision loss against Jean Matsumoto last October.
When you’re looking at the pros and cons, Katona has evolved into a well-rounded and technically strong fighter. The problem is, he is almost consistent to a fault, so he hasn’t really been able to surprise any of his opponents. That has resulted in a lot of close, tight, fights, that go the distance, but it hasn’t brought the type of success Katona needs to earn a promotion to the main card, let alone ever challenge for the bantamweight title.
Bekzat Almakhan UFC 315 Odds
Almakhan, born in Kazakhstan, is 11-2 in his professional MMA career, with nine of his wins coming by knockout and two each by submission and decision.
The 27-year-old isn’t very well known to UFC fans as this is just his second appearance in the Octagon. Almakhan debuted in the UFC as a short-notice replacement against Umar Nurmagomedov in March 2024. While taking a short-notice fight typically endears you to the UFC brass, it puts you in a bad position in terms of the fight, so it’s no surprise that Almakhan lost by unanimous decision against Nurmagomedov.
Despite losing his UFC debut, Almakhan was impressive against a tough opponent. Almakhan stung Nurmagomedov early and his aggression and athleticism stood out in particular.
The big weakness Almakhan showed against Nurmagomedov was his wrestling ability, but that shouldn’t be an issue against Katona, who hasn’t scored a submission win in over four years.
Almakhan’s physicality and toughness should give him the edge on Saturday.
UFC 315 Prediction: Katona vs. Almakhan
Almakhan is coming off an impressive performance against the currently ranked No. 3 fighter in the bantamweight division and I think he pulls off a dominant win against Katona.
Almakhan wins by unanimous decision (+150).
