UFC 314 Odds, Prediction: Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull

Patricio Pitbull has been idle since successfully defending his Bellator featherweight title with a third-round TKO victory over Jeremy Kennedy back in March 2024 that marked his 10th win in his past 11 fights at 145 pounds. Yair Rodriguez returns from a 14-month layoff looking to put the brakes on a two-fight losing streak, capped by a third-round submission loss to Brian Ortega in February 2024 at UFC Mexico City. That defeat came on the heels of his third-round TKO loss to Alexander Volkanovski in a failed bid for the UFC featherweight strap at UFC 290, leaving him with just two wins in his past five octagon appearances.

Rodriguez has emerged as a solid -200 favourite on the UFC 314 odds. Pitball makes his octagon debut as a +165 underdog and the odds of this contest going a full three rounds are pegged at a short -150.

Yair Rodríguez UFC 314 Odds

Currently listed as the No. 5 contender on the UFC featherweight rankings, Rodriguez cannot afford to suffer a third straight loss if he hopes to garner another title shot anytime soon. “El Pantera” quickly faded after a dominating start in his last fight, suffering three takedowns and landing just 10 total strikes over the final six minutes of his clash with Brian Ortega at UFC Mexico City. However, Rodriguez has enjoyed much more success when avoiding level changes, winning seven straight when getting taken down one or fewer times. The 32-year-old is also a prolific striker, ranking among the leading active UFC featherweights with 1,173 total strikes landed. However, he has not finished an opponent with punches in nine fights since knocking out BJ Penn in the second round of their clash at UFC Fight Night 103 in 2017.

Patrício Pitbull UFC 314 Odds

While Pitbull may be new to the UFC, fighting UFC opponents is not new for the four-time Bellator champion, who has battled such fighters as Michael Chandler, Benson Henderson, and Sergio Pettis. While the 37-year-old has won just once in three outings, those defeats came at bantamweight or catchweight, leaving his current four-fight win streak at 145 pounds intact. Indeed, Pitbull established himself as nothing less than a legendary Bellator featherweight, setting Bellator records with 24 wins, 15 title fight wins, and 15 finishes. Overall, Pitbull sports a 36-7 career record, with 12 KOs, 12 submissions, and 12 decisions, making him a dangerous opponent in every situation. Long fights are not a concern for the Brazilian, who has three or more rounds in four of six outings, but has seen two of his three most recent defeats come inside five minutes.

UFC 314 Prediction: Yair Rodríguez vs Patrício Pitbull

With both these fighters coming off long layoffs, rust could play a factor in this clash. That may work against Rodriguez, who has tended to fade in marathon contests, which likely puts pressure on him to finish things early. While Pitbull will be looking to start his UFC career with a decisive win, he will be rewarded by showing patience in a clash that he is capable of winning by decision.

Prediction: Pitbull by decision/technical decision (+400)